Economists spell out Canada’s best- and worst-case scenarios for 2012

TAVIA GRANT

From Monday's Globe and Mail

The Canadian economy went on a roller-coaster ride in 2011: The year began with a bang, but momentum wobbled in the second half. So what’s in store for 2012? Most economists see slow growth, with an average forecast of 2 per cent for the year. But opinions are split on how it will play out.

THE BEAR: Beata Caranci, deputy chief economist (U.S. and international), Toronto-Dominion Bank

1. You see the economy growing about 1.7 per cent this year. What will drive this growth – or hold it back?

We expect further deterioration in financial conditions in early 2012 alongside a deep recession taking root in Europe. … Because much of Canada’s performance is dependent on global events, the knock-on effects will scar growth by weighing down consumer and business confidence, and by resulting in softer exports and commodity prices.

2. Where do you see the currency?

If European turmoil intensifies, investors will flee to the safety of the U.S. dollar, [to the detriment of] the Canadian dollar, which would likely slip to roughly 90 cents (U.S.) in the first half of the year.

3. Canada’s jobless rate is 7.4 per cent. How will the labour market fare in 2012?

Canadians probably have to brace for an unemployment rate that is likely to go up in 2012 … in the 7.5 to 7.7-per-cent range.

4. The Bank of Canada held the line on interest rates in 2011. What will happen this year?

2012 will be marked by more of the same when it comes to the Bank’s overnight interest rate. The uncertainty and financial market turbulence created by Europe coupled with a slowdown in the broader global economy is not an environment that will be conducive to higher rates in Canada. And, against this backdrop, inflationary pressures should ease in the coming year, facilitating the decision to leave rates unchanged at ultra-low levels.

5. Inflation got a little hotter this year. What’s your outlook in 2012?

Much of the momentum in inflation this year can be attributed to the runup in energy and food prices, which likely also seeped into the prices of other goods and services. But, commodity prices have eased in recent months … given the prospect for weaker economic growth and a rise in the unemployment rate, we think inflation will hold below 2 per cent next year.

6. Consumers remain heavily indebted. What’s in store for them?

The prognosis is not good for 2012. … Soft job creation will equal stagnant wages, and asset growth will be constrained by ongoing equity market volatility, low interest rates and cooling home prices. … debt levels relative to incomes will hit new highs in 2012. As debt burdens keep rising, [consumer spending] will show pretty shallow growth of 1.6 per cent.

7. In the global economy, where will be the strongest and weakest pockets of growth?

Looking at advanced economies, without question, the weakest pocket will be the euro zone, which we think will contract by roughly 1.2 per cent. Both [the U.S. and Canada] are expected to post real GDP growth just shy of 2 per cent.

Among the emerging market economies, all seem to be gearing down, but some more so than others. We think the Asian NICs [newly industrialized countries], Brazil and perhaps even India will slow down to a lesser extent than China.

8. What are the greatest risks next year to the Canadian and global economy?

The greatest risk to Canada and the global economy are one and the same – a misstep by European policy leaders that results in a global financial crisis.

9. What are you planning on reading over the holidays?

I’m doing a right-brain, left-brain thing. I’m reading Boomerang and The Girl Who Played with Fire … I’ll let you know which one kept me up at night.

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THE BULL: Dawn Desjardins, assistant chief economist, Royal Bank of Canada

1. You see the economy growing about 2.5 per cent this year. What will drive this growth – or hold it back?

Our forecast that U.S. economic growth will gear up a notch and that the worst for the euro-zone crisis will occur early in the year sets up Canadian exports to grow at the fastest pace since 2000. Businesses, which have recorded strong earnings growth and are flush with cash, are also going to support growth … helped along by the consumer although the pace of consumption is likely to grow by a moderate 2.1 per cent next year.

A modest paring of inventories after two years of rebuilding, declining government investment and slowing residential construction activity will weigh on the economy.

2. Where do you see the currency?

Canada’s dollar is well-supported by fundamentals … [but] during periods of uncertainty investors prefer to be in … the U.S. dollar. So we forecast that Canada’s dollar will trade around parity.

3. Canada’s jobless rate is 7.4 per cent. How will the labour market fare in 2012?

The bump-up in the pace of U.S. growth in the fourth quarter is likely to restore confidence in Canada as our largest trading partner gears up. [We] anticipate a return to a more sustainable pace of hiring [and that] the unemployment rate will gradually decline … to 7.1 per cent by the end of 2012.

4. The Bank of Canada held the line on interest rates in 2011. What will happen this year?

[We believe that] European leaders will be able to forge a plan to solve the sovereign debt crisis … investors are likely to become less risk-averse if they believe that a solution is on the way. … Our base case forecast for growth of 2.5 per cent in both Canada and the U.S. sets the stage for the Bank of Canada to start to unwind some of the [current] stimulus. By the end of 2012, we expect the overnight rate will be 1.5 per cent (from 1 per cent now). Further rate increases are likely in 2013 as long as the U.S. expansion continues and European economies return to health.

5. Inflation got a little hotter this year. What’s your outlook for 2012?

We anticipate energy prices will stabilize … The core rate has edged up in recent months partly due to increasing prices for motor vehicles. Now that the supply disruptions … of 2011 have been alleviated, these prices will reverse course. We expect both the headline and core inflation rates to average less than 2 per cent in 2012.

6. Consumers remain heavily indebted. What’s in store for them?

Our expectation that the labour market will hold up, and that interest rates will be very modestly higher by the end of next year, suggests households will continue to be able to service their debt [while moderating their spending].

7. In the global economy, where will be the strongest and weakest pockets of growth?

Canada and the U.S. are looking good in 2012 with growth averaging 2.5 per cent while the euro zone is expected to … gradually recover [from recession] over the course of 2012. China and other emerging nations are showing signs of flagging with average growth likely to be 5.5 per cent in 2012, down from 6.3 per cent in 2011. However EM [emerging market] growth is still expected to run much faster than in 2009, when it increased by just 1.5 per cent.

9. What are the greatest risks next year to the Canadian and global economy?

That the European sovereign debt situation continues to run in crisis mode, and that jitters about government debt damage sentiment in the U.S. as well.

Canada Border Services Agency arrests 30 mall workers in Ottawa, Gatineau

SEAN MCKIBBON

Published: December 20, 2011 10:21 a.m.

Last modified: December 20, 2011 11:21 a.m.

The Canada Border Services Agency arrested 30 people Monday in raids targeting illegal foreign workers in shopping malls in Gatineau and Ottawa.

"Those people are currently being detained and will have a detention review hearing Thursday in Montreal," said CBSA spokesman Stephane Malepart.

Malepart said the people arrested were working at kiosks selling beauty products at Bayshore Shoping Centre, Place d'Orleans, Carlingwood Mall, St. Laurent Shoping Centre, Hazeldean Mall, Billings Bridge Shopping Centre,  Les Galeries de Hull and Les Promenades de l'Outaouais.

Malepart said the arrests happened toward the end of the business day.

He said more information will be released at the detention review hearing, which must be held within 48 hours of an arrest.  Those arrested may be detained longer pending an admissability hearing if they are deemed a flight risk or danger to the public by the presiding Immigration and Refugee Board member. They can also be released or released with conditions, Malepart said.

A similar arrest happened in Gatineau in November, Malepart said.

More to come...

Manitoba probes immigrant-investor program

ANNA MEHLER PAPERNY

From Monday's Globe and Mail

Manitoba’s auditor-general is reviewing an initiative designed to bring immigrant investors to the province in light of scandals plaguing similar programs in the Maritimes.

There has been no suggestion of wrongdoing in Manitoba; but scathing audits, fraud allegations, lawsuits and RCMP investigations in the Atlantic provinces have raised concerns thousands of kilometres away.

It was an area we thought there was a high risk that there could be problems,” said Manitoba Auditor-General Carol Bellringer in an interview with The Globe and Mail. “We wanted to find out how that whole investment part worked, and if there was any potential for [immigrants] to be taken advantage of.”

Ms. Bellringer said the audit can delve into any aspect of the program’s administration – from financial and human-resources management to its information system. “It all depends once we’re into the details of it, which areas are of highest risk,” she said. “We start the audit with a blank page.”

The investor stream is part of a broader provincial nominee program that allows provinces to hand-pick immigrants, usually through direct employer sponsorships or, as in this case, by inviting people to inject tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars into the local economy for the privilege of permanent residency.

This is supposed to be the new face of Canadian immigration – a localized, market-responsive alternative to the traditional point system of selecting skilled newcomers. The latter has become notorious for supplying the country with legions of taxi-driving engineers while employers in other regions and sectors grapple with labour shortages.

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney has credited the provincial nominee program with better matching immigrants to employers. He argues it has also injected needed growth and diversity into rural corners of the country whose populations had been declining.

Nowhere is this more true than in Manitoba, which has become the poster child for successful provincially driven immigration. It has attracted by far the most newcomers – more than 12,000 of the 36,000 nominees nationally in 2010. In addition to the thousands of skilled workers sponsored annually, says Enterpreneurship, Training and Trade Minister Peter Bjornson, “we’ve got a waiting list of people who want to come and invest in Manitoba."

Manitoba is banking on its record of success to persuade Mr. Kenney to give the province more leeway in how many people it is allowed to bring in.

“We feel there’s a bit of a tight leash right now. … We think that's quite restrictive.We would like to see that change,” Mr. Bjornson said. “We have a great example of how the program can work well.”

But Mr. Kenney says he’s considering moving in the opposite direction.

"We do have some concerns with the program," he said in an interview. “We are not going to continue with the rate of growth in the program over the past few years until we’re able to sit down with the provinces and make sure our concerns are addressed,” he said.

His department is conducting what he calls a “major study” of the program in the wake of a series of scandals in Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. That report, originally due this fall, is supposed to come out in "early 2012," according to a spokeswoman for Mr. Kenney.

In all three provinces, audits found the programs’ goals were poorly defined. Where they were defined, they weren’t measured, and what could be measured fell short or failed to comply with the provinces’ own rules – especially in their investor-specific streams.

PEI’s nominee program fast-tracked thousands of immigrant investors after the federal government announced plans to suspend that stream. Nova Scotia settled a class-action suit in September. Some Chinese immigrants who came to New Brunswick have also filed lawsuits, claiming they invested in bogus schemes. Many more have simply moved to Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal.

“The real focus was on the head count,” says Kurt Peacock, immigration project officer with Enterprise Saint John. “They wanted to bring more immigrants each and every quarter, and there wasn’t as much attention paid to how those newcomers that have already arrived are faring.”

Mr. Kenney puts it more bluntly.

“Passive investor streams are problematic. There’s a lot of money that moves around, you get promoters and agents involved,” he said. “Where this program works best, in my view, is where it’s based on an arranged employment offer for a skilled trades person.”

Ms. Bellringer’s attention was piqued when her Nova Scotia counterpart came to her office seeking help with forensic investigations into the province’s nominee program.

“We thought, ‘Wow, that sounds pretty serious. … We’d better make sure there isn't a problem here,’” Ms. Bellringer said.

Rosemary Lu and Jack Yang were among New Brunswick’s first immigrant investor s when they arrived in Saint John with nine-year-old twins in 2006. But their business partnership soured. She spent years waitressing and teaching English; he installed windows for a contracting company.

They got fed up, launched a lawsuit and moved to Toronto. Their new restaurant, Fleur de Lys, has been open since June.

“We couldn’t keep going,” Ms. Lu said. “It’s a good idea … if you don’t get taken advantage of.”

Immigrants say they know nation better than Canadians born here Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/life/Immigrants+they+know+nation+better+than+Canadians+born+here/5910317/story.html#ixzz1hhfhvmpA

BY RANDY BOSWELL, OTTAWA CITIZEN DECEMBER 26, 2011

 

 

Immigrants to Canada claim a stronger knowledge of the country's history than those who were born here, according to one of the surprising results of a nationwide survey probing Canadians' grasp on the past.

More than 2,300 people were polled this fall by the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies for a year-end report that explores respondents' perspectives on Canada's history, including how they assess their own command of the subject.

About 82 per cent of survey respondents who identified themselves as being born outside of Canada claimed to have "very strong" or "somewhat strong" knowledge of Canadian history. In contrast, only about 70 per cent of respondents born in Canada rated their historical knowledge strong or very strong.

Notably, nearly twice as many immigrant respondents (27 per cent) as born-in-Canada citizens (16 per cent) described their history knowledge as "very strong."

ACS executive director Jack Jedwab suspects the reason immigrants are more likely to claim a solid command of Canadian history is that they have - in many cases quite recently - been required to familiarize themselves with highlights of the country's past as part of the process of gaining citizenship.

"Those people are exposed to our citizenship test, which has a historical dimension," said Jedwab, referring to the examination that immigrants must pass before becoming full-fledged Canadian citizens.

While native-born citizens get a Canadian history education during their elementary and secondary schooling, they don't get the "refresher course" newcomers receive in their quest to gain citizenship.

Jedwab also notes that polling repeatedly shows a correlation between high levels of education and knowledge of national history and that immigrants are - relative to average schooling levels among born-in-Canada citizens - better educated.

He also speculated that immigrants may be more attuned to the story of Canada's evolution because of their direct connection to the country's multicultural identity, which Jedwab says "is becoming the dominant narrative in Canadian history. They see themselves as part of this."

Citizenship and Immigration Canada, under the direction of Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, revised and updated the 63-page Discover Canada citizenship guide last year to underline the need for newcomers to learn about Canada's past.

The department also raised the passing grade for the 20-question test to 75 per cent, from 60 per cent, and implemented a random-scramble system to ensure no two tests are identical and thus subject to copying and memorization. Last December, Kenney argued that the changes wouldn't prevent earnest newcomers from passing the citizenship test.

"We reject completely," he said then, "the condescending notion that new Canadians aren't smart enough to learn some basic facts about the country's history and values."

The survey results suggest that immigrants are quite confident in their knowledge of Canadian history

The polling was conducted for ACS in late September and early October by Leger Marketing. A representative sample of 2,345 Canadians were surveyed online, and the results reflect a potential margin of error of two per cent, 19 times out of 20.

rboswell@postmedia.com

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen

Read more:http://www.ottawacitizen.com/life/Immigrants+they+know+nation+better+than+Canadians+born+here/5910317/story.html#ixzz1hhfltX4e

New Canadians know more about Canada than those born here: Survey

BY RANDY BOSWELL, POSTMEDIA NEWS

Immigrants to Canada claim a stronger knowledge of the country's history than those who were born here, according to one of the surprising results of a nationwide survey probing Canadians' grasp on the past.

More than 2,300 people were polled this fall by the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies for a year-end report that explores respondents' perspectives on Canada's history, including how they assess their own command of the subject.

About 82 per cent of survey respondents who identified themselves as being born outside of Canada claimed to have "very strong" or "somewhat strong" knowledge of Canadian history.

In contrast, only about 70 per cent of respondents born in Canada rated their historical knowledge strong or very strong.

Notably, nearly twice as many immigrant respondents (27 per cent) as born-in-Canada citizens (16 per cent) described their history knowledge as "very strong."

ACS executive director Jack Jedwab suspects the reason immigrants are more likely to claim a solid command of Canadian history is that they have — in many cases quite recently — been required to familiarize themselves with highlights of the country's past as part of the process of gaining citizenship.

"Those people are exposed to our citizenship test, which has a historical dimension," said Jedwab, referring to the multiple-choice examination that immigrants must pass before becoming full-fledged Canadian citizens.

While native-born citizens get a Canadian history education during their elementary and secondary schooling, they don't get the "refresher course" newcomers receive in their quest to gain citizenship.

Jedwab also notes that polling repeatedly shows a correlation between high levels of education and knowledge of national history and that immigrants are — relative to average schooling levels among born-in-Canada citizens — better educated.

He also speculated that immigrants may be more attuned to the story of Canada's growth and evolution because of their direct connection to the country's multicultural identity, which Jedwab says "is becoming the dominant narrative in Canadian history. They see themselves as part of this."

Citizenship and Immigration Canada, under the direction of Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, revised and updated the 63-page Discover Canada citizenship guide last year as part of an effort to underline the need for newcomers to learn about Canada's past.

"Whether we are citizens by birth or by choice, we should all learn about our history, heritage and citizenship," the federal department states on the website for the Discover Canada study guide, which is subtitled "The Rights and Responsibilities of Citizenship."

The department also raised the passing grade for the 20-question test to 75 per cent, from 60 per cent, and implemented a random-scramble system to ensure no two tests are identical and thus subject to copying and memorization by applicants.

Last December, Kenney argued that the changes wouldn't prevent earnest newcomers from passing the citizenship test.

"We reject completely," he said at the time, "the condescending notion that new Canadians aren't smart enough to learn some basic facts about the country's history and values."

The survey results suggest that — at least as far as they see themselves — immigrants are quite confident in their knowledge of Canadian history.

The polling was conducted for ACS in late September and early October by Leger Marketing.

A representative sample of 2,345 Canadians were surveyed online, and the results reflect a potential margin of error of two per cent, 19 times out of 20.

rboswell@postmedia.com

© Copyright (c) Postmedia News

Read more: http://www.canada.com/Canadians+know+more+about+Canada+than+those+born+here+Survey/5909202/story.html#ixzz1hZYpPaJ1

Labor Market Opinion Canada

Labor Market Opinion Basics

Generally speaking, all Canadian work permits require a Labor Market Opinion (LMO). For information on Canadian work permits that do not require an LMO, click here.

What is a Labor Market Opinion (LMO)?

An LMO is a labor market verification process whereby Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) assesses the offer of employment to ensure that the foreign worker will not have a negative impact on the Canadian labor market. In their analysis of the offer of employment, HRSDC will consider the following elements:

1. Is the salary offered to the foreign worker consistent with the average for the occupation in the area the position is located?

2. Are the working conditions consistent with labor laws and/or collective bargaining agreements?

3. Is there a labor shortage for that occupation in the area the position is located?

4. Is there an ongoing labor dispute in the company and/or industry?

5. Has the Canadian employer undertaken recruitment efforts in order to find a Canadian to fill the position?

6. Will the foreign worker be able to transfer unique skills or expertise to Canadians?

7. Will hiring the foreign worker help to create or retain jobs for Canadians?

8. Will the foreign worker be the employee of the Canadian employer, whereby the foreign worker is expected to work on a full-time basis at a pre-determined wage?

NOTE: the labor market opinion is specific to employer, position and geographical region. This means that if a foreign worker has a positive LMO and decides to change positions, even within the same company, they will require a new one.

Generally speaking, for jobs located in Canada's major cities, the more specialized the position and the higher the salary offered increases the chances of obtaining a positive LMO. In less populated cities and regions, this is still true but generally obtaining an LMO is easier.

LMO Based Work Permits

Typically, foreign workers and employers must go through a two-step process in order to receive a Canadian work permit. Firstly, the applicant must submit an application to HRSDC for a Labor Market Opinion, followed by a second application to Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) for the actual work permit. The LMO is issued by HRSDC who, after considering numerous protective labour market factors, authorizes the Canadian employer to hire a foreign worker.

How Long Does it take to obtain a Labour Market Opinion?

The application for an LMO can take anywhere from 2 to 10 weeks, depending on the location of the job offer in Canada. There is an HRSDC office in almost every Canadian province, they are responsible for the processing of the LMO application. For further information please fill out the form above.

Source: Canadianimmigration.net

Newcomers to Canada (immigrants) First Tax Year

The following information is to you only for the first tax year during which you are considered a resident of Canada for tax purposes . Next, we will consider more than you are a newcomer to tax purposes.

If you immigrate to Canada, we believe that you have acquired (Grow) almost all your assets to their fair market value the day you immigrated. If you return to reside in Canada and you had a year deemed disposition of your departure, check out our Web dispositions of property .

Residency status

You become a resident of Canada for tax purposes when you established residential ties with Canada's leading, usually from the date of your arrival in Canada.

Newcomers who have established residential ties in Canada may be, as appropriate:

people who have applied for permanent resident status to Citizenship and Immigration Canada or who have received;
people who received the Citizenship and Immigration Canada an "approval in principle" to remain in Canada.
If you were a resident of Canada in a previous year and you have become non-resident, you will become a resident of Canada when you return to Canada and re-establish your residential ties.


What is residential ties?

Residential ties include:

a home in Canada;
a spouse or common-law partner (see the definition in the General Income Tax and Benefit Return ) and dependents who move to Canada to live with you;
personal property in Canada, as a car or furniture;
social ties in Canada.
Other ties that may be relevant are:

a Canadian driver's license;
credit cards issued in Canada or Canadian bank accounts;
health insurance in a province or territory of Canada.
For more information, see Interpretation Bulletin IT-221, Determination of resident status of an individual .

If you want an opinion on your residency status, fill out and send us Form NR74, Determination of Residency Status (Entering Canada) .


Your tax obligations As a resident of Canada:

you must report the income from all sources (income from sources inside and outside Canada) on your Canadian tax return;
you must make sure to pay the correct amount of taxes according to law;
you have the right and responsibility to verify your tax status each year;
you can claim all deductions, all refundable tax credits and all federal funding, provincial or territorial you are entitled.
As a newcomer to Canada, you should know that most individuals who reside in Canada must complete one tax return for the tax year, because the Canadian government collects taxes on behalf of all provinces and all territories, except Quebec.

Note
If you live in Quebec during the tax year, you may need to complete a provincial return. For more information, contact Revenu Québec .

Do you file a tax return?

Whether you are a resident of Canada for a part or an entire tax year (from 1 st  January to 31 December), you must file a tax return if you are in one of the following:

you owe taxes;
you want to request a refund.
Even if you do not have to declare income or tax payable, you may be eligible for certain credits or payments. You must file a tax return to receive the credits or payments to:

the credit for the GST / HST (Goods and Services Tax / Harmonized Sales)
payments of child tax benefit ;
tax credits, provincial or territorial.
For more information, see "Should you file a return? "In the General Income Tax and Benefit Return .


Which tax package?

For the tax year during which you are a newcomer to Canada, and for each of the years you continue to be resident in Canada for tax purposes, use the General Income Tax and Benefit and the forms book for the province or territory of residence at December 31 of the tax year.

Tax rates and tax credits are different in each province and territory, so it is important that you use the correct forms book for your province or territory.
If you live in Quebec, you may need to complete a provincial return. For more information, contact Revenu Québec .
Filing deadline

You must send your return on or before:

April 30th of the year following the tax year;
June 15th of the year following the tax year if you or your spouse or common-law declare business income in Canada (unless the expenditures in connection with the operation of the business are mainly abrix tax).
Note
Any balance due must be paid no later than 30 April of the year following the tax year, and this, regardless of the filing deadline.

Eligibility for benefits and credits

As a newcomer to Canada, you may be entitled to credit for the Goods and Services Tax / Harmonized Sales Tax (GST / HST), the Canada Child Tax Benefit (CCTB) and / or universal benefit for Child Care Benefit (UCCB) in the year you became a resident of Canada.

To claim the credit for the GST / HST, complete Form RC151, Request for the GST / HST Information for Individuals Who Become Residents of Canada .
To apply for the CCTB and / or UCCB, complete Form RC66, Application for Canadian children . In addition, depending on your immigration status or residence, you may need to complete Schedule entitled Status in Canada Statement of Income .