The Canadian labour shortage ahead





Population: Big choices

How big a country should Canada be? The current trajectory (medium growth), shows a total population of 52.3 million by 2061, with annual immigration at 406,700 (a rate of 0.75 per cent). Under the high growth scenario, the rate would be 0.9 per cent annually. Doubling economic immigrants would increase the rate to slightly more than 1 per cent.

Population growth

GRAPHIC
Source: Statistics Canada






Immigration's central role

Canada's population growth already depends almost entirely on immigration. Following current trends, projections show an annual increase of 386,400 people by 2061, made up of 346,800 net immigrants (406,700 new immigrants minus 59,900 emigrants) and 39,600 net new births. Only about 10 per cent of growth will be due to new births.

Medium growth scenario


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The labour deficit

Canada is facing a looming labour shortage. A million jobs could be going unfilled across the country by 2021 because of a lack of qualified candidates. Sectors facing critical shortages of skilled labour include mining, oil and health care. Alberta is already facing labour shortages and the province anticipates a deficit of 114,000 jobs by 2021. In Ontario, by 2031, the shortfall in skilled labour could be as high 1.8 million according to an analysis of Ministry of Finance data.



Alberta's cumulative labour shortage

Overall occupational outlook, 2010-2021

  • Based on medium population-growth projections

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Rethinking immigration

Countries by birth rate in 2008
Countries by birth rate in 2008 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Country of birth of "immigrants and non-p...
Country of birth of "immigrants and non-permanent residents" in Canada in 2001 Census (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Globe and Mail Update

Canada is facing a demographic crunch and labour shortage that will hinder our future prosperity. The solution: More economic immigrants who are selected for their skills. Scroll through the interactive below to delve into the challenges of immigration and possible fixes. Hear from immigrants and innovators. Share your own immigration story and see what immigration looks like in your community according to the latest available census data.

Canada accepts roughly 250,000 immigrants each year. But for newcomers, resettling can be daunting: You might be told your previous work experience no longer counts. Or you might lack the personal connections to find the best opportunities. Those struggles can, however, make the triumphs all the more precious.

Canada needs more immigrants. In some regions and industries, Canada is already short of educated, skilled workers. With birth rates low and lifespans ever longer, those problems will deepen in the future. Worse, our social safety system could become unsustainable. A possible solution is to expand immigration for "economic" migrants – those selected for their skills – to as much as double current levels. This would raise annual immigration to nearly 400,000 by 2016.


The coming demographic crunch

With baby boomers heading for retirement, eventually there will be only two workers for every senior citizen. This increases the burden on workers for seniors' pensions and other social programs, slows growth and makes labour shortages even more dire.

Canada's working-aged population per senior citizen over time, and the same ratio by province  


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Where are immigrants going?



Provinces' shares of economic immigration





Immigrants, by classification



  • Economic immigrants

    As a percentage of all immigrants, by province

Then and now



Comparing immigration source countries from 1970 and 2010 and how key measures of immigrant demographics and settlement patterns changed between the 1986 and 2006 census periods.

Who is immigrating?

Immigrants, by country of origin

How networking helped prevent an immigrant brain drain in Nova Scotia

The historic Bank of Nova Scotia head office a...
The historic Bank of Nova Scotia head office and Halifax main branch at 1709 Hollis Street, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, designed by John Lyle. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Globe and Mail Update


Fred Morley spearheaded a simple solution to a problem that has plagued Nova Scotia for generations: losing too many of its best and brightest to other parts of Canada.
Retaining young people and newcomers has long been a provincial priority, so Mr. Morley, as chief economist of Greater Halifax’s economic development agency, decided to create networks dedicated to helping immigrants find good jobs in their field.
The initial plan three years ago was to recruit 50 employers for a program that has immigrants meet over coffee with professionals so they can ask questions and come away with the names of three other people they can speak with. Twice that number answered the call, and now 360 well-connected volunteers take part.
“Finding a job isn’t about what you know,” Mr. Morley says. “It’s about who you know and recognizing that most people don’t find work because of ads in newspapers, but because they meet someone.”
The Connector program doesn’t cost much to run, and has already had a measurable impact on labour market outcomes, finding work for 115 immigrants so far. As a result, 10 other cities from Montreal to Charlottetown are adopting the approach. And the Halifax program has been broadened to help international graduates and recent Canadian grads forge professional contacts.
For example, Doris Du, 24, came from China in 2008 to study finance at St. Mary’s University. Last month, she landed a job as a client services representative at the Bank of Montreal after connecting with the bank through the program.
Chatting face to face with her future employer gave her the edge, she says. “If you talk to people in person, they see you’re confident and positive and have a lot of energy and the passion to learn, that is very important.”

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New immigration rules: Canada wants more skilled tradespersons than managers with big degrees


he recent changes in Canada's immigration rules proposed by Jason Kenney, citizenship and immigration minister, are aimed at attracting more skilled tradespersons to the country, to fill the growing labour shortages being faced by sectors such as natural resources and construction.

Under the revamped Federal Skilled Worker Program(FSWP), likely to be launched later this year, Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) will have a simplified programme for skilled workers under certain sectors such as transportation, construction, service and manufacturing industries.

Further, the Canadian government proposes to allow applicants from certain occupations to be fast-tracked under the skilled workers programme.

The new programme is likely to be more flexible and allow the immigration minister to use his authority to place a priority on a specific field. Such priority occupations would be set out in ministerial instructions.

Under the current immigration levels plan for 2012, Canada plans to admit between 55,000 and 57,000 skilled workers through the FSWP. So far, there has been no increase in the numbers announced by CIC, a senior official in the Canadian High CommissionDelhi, confirmed.

Currently, applicants under the skilled workers programme are evaluated against a grid of 100 points. Official language ability, work experience, education and age of the candidate are considered along with job offer in the country and their adaptability as a whole.
Immigration policy
And while 10 of the 24 occupations on the skilled workers' list for immigration are from various trades, skilled tradespeople, so far, form only 3% of the total number of immigrants under the FSWP.

The system favours managers and professionals over skilled workers, with huge backlogs for the latter.

"The changes in the immigration policy will allow the government to pick and choose the skillsets that are required in line with economic trends. International work experience and training are now recognised by the Canadian authorities and hence evaluating skilled immigrants will also become easier. Besides, the Canadian government will have the right to fast-track applicants whose skills are required in the country," says Sudershan Banerjee, a strategy adviser in Canada.

The changes will, in fact, give skilled workers a chance to be evaluated according to work experience and practical training instead of university degrees. The minimum knowledge of English or French language will, however, be retained as a criterion.

"The changes are aimed to meet the economic needs of Canada and focussed on areas of growth within industry. Some sectors have seen rapid growth over the past couple of years and have huge gaps of skilled tradespeople," says Deepak Obhrai, Indo-Canadian member of parliament. He doesn't see any likely fall in number of immigrants fromIndia as a result of the shift in focus. "India has always been a huge source of immigrants to Canada and we don't see that trend changing at all," he says.

Problem of Over-qualification 

There have been growing concerns among the Indian Canadian community over new immigrants ending up with jobs that they are over-qualified for or remaining unemployed for large periods after they land in Canada. The proposed changes are largely being seen as a step to tackle such issues. 

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