The Surprising Global Shortage of Skilled Workers

By Dexter Roberts


Want to find a job? That’s not a problem if you are trained as a technician and looking for work in China or Brazil. Ditto for sales representatives, who are in hot demand in Taiwan and Hong Kong. In Japan, engineers won’t sit idle. Meanwhile, in Ireland, IT workers are needed. In the Netherlands, it’s laborers. Even with unemployment running at an historic high of 8.1 percent in the U.S., don’t worry if you are a plumber, welder, or electrician. There’s plenty of demand for your skills.

Even as economists and politicians fret about the problem of global unemployment, those with the right résumés are in hot demand. That’s leading to talent shortages around the world, according to a survey released on May 29 by Milwaukee-based ManpowerGroup (MAN), one of the world’s largest temporary workers agencies.

All told, over one-third of the 38,000 companies Manpower surveyed earlier this year in 41 countries and territories reported that they were unable to find the workers they needed. That is 4 percentage points higher than it was in 2009, during the global financial crisis. The figure is still well below the 41 percent that reported shortages in 2007, before the crisis.

“Companies have gotten sophisticated about who they need and when they need them. In today’s world, it’s ‘stretch out your workplace a bit more and [only] then hire,’” says Jeff Joerres, ManpowerGroup’s chairman and chief executive officer. “Even if we had a robust recovery, I don’t think you are going to see that change. Companies have had too many lessons about how you can get whipsawed the other way.”

Not surprisingly, the largest number of employers reported shortages in Asia, where economies have been relatively resilient to date. Some 45 percent of employers surveyed there cited difficulties in finding the right people to hire. That’s the same number as in 2011, and it’s 17 percentage points above the total when the first survey was carried out in 2006. In the Americas, 41 percent faced challenges getting the right workers, up from 37 percent last year and 34 percent in 2010.

In Europe, as well as the Middle East and Africa, only one-quarter of employers reported labor shortages, similar in number to last year and not much different from pre-crisis levels. That probably reflects the still-precarious nature of the European economy.

The reason companies said they face shortages? The largest share, or 33 percent, said they simply couldn’t find the workers they need. A key issue was a lack of such hard skills as IT knowledge or facility with a foreign language. Insufficient work experience, a dearth of soft skills, or what the survey called “employability”—meaning characteristics like motivation and interpersonal skills, wanting more money, and being unwilling to work part-time—were also factors, in descending order of importance.

Companies will continue to face challenges regarding talent shortages unless educational systems are changed, argues Joerres, who says a major problem is the skills mismatch—the gap between job-seekers’ abilities and what employers need. One way to fix this is to vastly expand the size and number of trade schools, he says.

“The honor of doing and going through a vocational technical program has diminished. Those who would have gone to that school are now going to a four-year university because parents and society say that is what you should do,” says Joerres. “There are not enough welders, plumbers, and draftsmen. We are seeing shortages in these areas. And the pendulum takes a while to swing back.”

Roberts is Bloomberg Businessweek's Asia News Editor and China bureau chief.

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Canadian REITs poised to outperform U.S. peers

Stronger economy, healthy banking sector underpin Canadian REITs

By Tania Haas


TORONTO (MarketWatch) — Canadian real-estate investment trusts are positioned to outperform their U.S. peers thanks to Canada’s strong economic fundamentals and the real estate sector’s more solid outlook, analysts and investors said.

Higher employment, a healthier banking sector and a better financing environment mean Canada’s real-estate investment trusts (REITs) are poised to extend their stronger historical performance while U.S. REITs struggle against the background of a lingering housing crisis and high household debt levels. But some analysts caution that the sector may have seen most of its gains for the current cycle.

“Compared to U.S. REITs, Canadian REITs offer investors higher yields and better historical total returns,” said Dennis Mitchell, Chief Investment Officer and Senior Portfolio Manager at Sentry Investments, which has about C$7 billion in assets under management.

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Expectations of more easing rise
Expectations of financial easing rose after reports the Federal Reserve may act to stimulate the U.S. economy and attention turned to the ECB’s June rate decision. Photo: Reuters

“The fundamentals of the Canadian commercial real estate market include higher occupancies, a better financing environment, higher consumer spending and lower unemployment,” he said.

Canadian REITs have been helped by Canada’s better economic situation, Mitchell and others in the industry said.

More jobs lead to higher housing occupancy rates and stronger consumer spending and Canada’s unemployment rate of 7.3% stands out against jobless figures from other major economies. The U.S. unemployment rate is 8.2%, while the euro-zone’s rate is 11.2%.

The better financing environment is supported by Canada’s strong banking sector, which earlier this year Moody’s rated at AA2, higher than international rivals. The World Economic Forum also ranked Canada’s banking system as the most sound in the world, four years in a row.

Both the U.S. and Canada are suffering from sluggish growth, each registering 1.9% gross domestic product expansion in the first quarter. But the weak growth, as long as it doesn’t lead to recession, can help REITs because it should allow central banks in both countries to keep interest rates low, which in turn makes borrowing costs more affordable.

These factors add up to a better outlook for REITs in Canada, even though their U.S. counterparts also offer decent returns, Mitchell said.

“The outlook for Canadian REITs is more positive than U.S. REITs right now. However, despite that fact, U.S. REITs have kept pace with Canadian REITs, possibly because they were cheaper to start with,” he said.

Top picks

Michael Smith, an analyst at Macquarie Capital Markets Canada, has three top picks: Allied Properties CA:AP.UN +1.18%  , First Capital Realty CA:FCR +3.32%   and Boardwalk REIT CA:BEI.UN +2.85%  .

Allied Properties specializes in restored office space primarily in downtown Toronto and Montreal. Smith has an outperform rating on the stock in part because of solid leasing activity. The company saw a 7.8% rental bump over expiring rates in the first quarter, which will lead to greater revenue. And young workers in Canada’s urban centers want to rent homes closer to their downtown workplaces. Allied’s current yield around 4.67% also makes it an attractive purchase.

Calgary-based Boardwalk manages over 225 residential properties in five provinces. Occupancy during the first quarter stood at 98%, which Smith says is “likely at or near the highest it will get.” Boardwalk’s dividend yield is around 3.1%.


Canadian REIT picks by Mitchell at Sentry Investments include Dundee REIT CA:D.UN +0.52%   and Mainstreet Equity CA:MEQ +1.13%  . Dundee REITs’ dividend yield is around 6.01%; Mainstreet doesn’t offer a dividend.

Other institutional investors like James West attribute the positive REIT environment in Canada less to job creation and consumer spending, and more to population growth.

“Canada Immigration announced last month that it would seek to expand Canada’s annual immigration from the current 225,000 per year to 400,000 per year, creating primary consumer demand for all sectors in Canada, especially real estate,” said West who guides institutional clients through his firm Midas Letter Portfolio Advisors.

His top pick is Vancouver-based Partners REIT CA:PAR.UN +0.14%  , which earlier this year announced a dividend yield of approximately 8.7%.

“Partners focuses on commercial developments with tenants like Shoppers Drug Mart and Canadian Tire, who sell everyday consumables, and discount stores like Wal-Mart, who are in high demand regardless of employment stats,” said West.

One area of concern for REIT investors is the potential for rising interest rates. But sector specialists say rising rates are not always bad.

“It depends on why interest rates are rising,” said Mitchell. “If interest rates are rising because inflation is rising, the unemployment rate is falling and economic growth is picking up, then that’s positive for REITs.

“However, if interest rates are going up because Greece has defaulted and risk premiums are rising then I would expect all equities, including REITs, would suffer,” he said.

Mitchell owns U.S. REITs Simon Property REIT SPG +2.03%    and Brookfield Office Properties CA:BPO +0.83%  , which has properties in Toronto and Calgary.

Simon and Brookfield’s dividend yields are roughly 2.7% and 3.5% respectively.

Not for everyone

Some investors shy away from concentrating too much on REITs. Cumberland Private Wealth Management, which focuses on clients with C$1 million or more, has only one Canadian REIT in its portfolio.

Cumberland owns Chartwell Senior Housing REIT CA:CSH.UN +1.18%  . Steve Hall, an investment analyst at Cumberland, said Chartwell Senior Housing now manages about 186 homes in Canada, making it the largest owner-operator of senior housing in the country.

Hall said there is reason to be wary of how REITs will perform in the coming months.

“Hard to know what’s in store for REITs,” he said. “They’ve performed really well so far this year, but it’s good to ask yourself, can it continue? As Wayne Gretzky said, ‘You want to go where the puck is going, not where the puck is.’ ”


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