Jay Bryan: In a grim world, Canada’s a bright spot

BY JAY BRYAN, THE GAZETTE
MONTREAL - The bad news you already know. Canada faces a slow slog economically for the next couple of years, maybe longer, as it fights the headwinds generated by a stubborn global debt crisis.
What you may not know is that in spite of this, Canada is one of the more fortunate countries on Earth in terms of its prosperity and future prospects.
This argument comes from Sherry Cooper, chief economist of the BMO Financial Group – better known as the Bank of Montreal – and she laid out her case persuasively yesterday to a Montreal business group.
“In my opinion, Canada will continue to be a global growth leader,” said Cooper, citing a long list of growth opportunities, from investment inflows to improved competitiveness.
Admittedly, the case for good cheer faces headwinds of its own. Over the past several months, this country has been battered by an economic slowdown and market crash similar to those in the U.S.
But uncomfortable as this has made many of us, the fact is that few Canadians would want to swap places with Americans, Britons or even Germans, whose country is Europe’s economic powerhouse, but where growth is grinding to a near-halt.
All these countries suffer from one or more crippling handicaps that we’ve been lucky enough to avoid in Canada.
Americans are enduring the drawn-out agonies of a housing bust that savaged the wealth of many families and badly damaged the banking system. Now extreme political partisanship is stifling any vigorous effort to stimulate growth.
Europe has its own problems, with widespread housing busts and damage to banks’ solvency, exacerbated by the exposure of enormous unacknowledged debts run up by Greece, the weakest member of the eurozone.
As in the U.S., political gridlock has delayed any effective action to bail out Greece, in this case because 17 sovereign nations must agree unanimously on steps to rescue their shared currency.
With Europe’s government-debt crisis sapping confidence in banks (which have big holdings of government bonds), credit markets are beginning to freeze up, slowing the region’s economy to a near-halt. Some think Europe is already in recession.
By comparison, Canadian home values are still rising briskly, housing construction (which has collapsed in the U.S. and much of Europe) continues to power along and economic growth, while slowing, is nowhere near falling into a recessionary slump.
There’s no struggle to control soaring government debt, as in Europe, the U.S. and Japan, because Canada entered the recession with a very low debt burden. This increased during the recession, but only to a modest degree, making it far easier to rein in today’s deficits.
One striking comparison captures much of this country’s relative prosperity.
In the U.S., a very high jobless rate has inched down only marginally in the 12 months, to 9.1 per cent from 9.6 per cent. Meanwhile in Canada, unemployment was relatively low 12 months ago at eight per cent, and has since fallen sharply to 7.1 per cent.
Some of Canada’s good fortune stems from dumb luck. Our huge resource endowment enables us to profit mightily from the high prices of resources ranging from petroleum to copper to wheat.
But there’s more to it, Cooper noted yesterday. Canada’s financial regulation is far better than most, leaving us with a banking sector widely regarded as the most solid in the world. That’s a key asset for economic growth.
Canada’s high-valued currency – which admittedly can squeeze export profits – is also being used to leverage economic growth. A high loonie makes it cheaper to import the best high-tech industrial equipment and the smartest minds from other countries.
An immigration system that has long focused on attracting valuable skills is serving this country well, as is a quality of life that enables Canada to attract large numbers of immigrants, which creates a growing market.
Even provinces like Quebec, where soaring tax rates and a squeeze on government services is forecast to contribute to a slight rise in unemployment next year (to an average of 7.6 per cent from 7.5 per cent this year), the outlook isn’t too bad, Cooper says.
The Charest government’s focus on controlling government debt is smart, she said. Quebec should come through the current soft spot in reasonable shape, and could do even better with an upgraded education system and a more welcoming atmosphere for immigrants, of which it now attracts very few.
jbryan@montrealgazette.com

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Canada new magnet for U.S. job hunters

TAVIA GRANT

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

Canada’s stronger economy is becoming a magnet for Americans hunting for work.

In a reversal of historical flows, immigration lawyers report a surge of calls from Americans who want to move north. Statistics bear out their observations: A record number of Americans applied for temporary work visas last year, Immigration Canada statistics show, spurred largely by the contrasting health of the two countries’ labour markets.

On one side of the border, 14 million Americans are out of work – the equivalent of more than 40 per cent of Canada’s population. On the other side, some employers – particularly in Alberta’s oil sector – say they can’t find enough skilled workers, prompting the country’s federal immigration minister to publicly muse last month on how to admit more skilled Americans.

The U.S. jobless rate is 9.1 per cent while Canada’s comparable rate – adjusted to U.S. concepts – is just 6.3 per cent, statistics released last week show.

“It’s reverse brain drain,” says Toronto-based immigration lawyer Sergio Karas. “There are a lot of disgruntled people who say ‘America is letting me down.’”

He sees several shifts – Canadians who married Americans and live in the U.S. are now returning to Canada because of better job prospects in professional areas like law and finance. And more Americans, from the Northeast and California in particular, are setting their sights on Canada for its work opportunities and other factors such as affordable health care, a stronger banking system and stable housing market.

Paul DeJoe is one of them. The 29-year-old tried for years to drum up interest in his business idea in Philadelphia to no avail. He moved to Vancouver this summer to participate in an incubator program that focuses on Internet startups. He says there’s a bigger flow of ideas, and more seed money, available to them now that they’re based in Canada.

“It looks like we will become a Canadian company – we have access to a bunch more opportunities. And it’s really nice here and we’ve had a great experience thus far,” says Mr. DeJoe, founder of Ecquire, which provides software that helps users eliminate data entry.

Canada’s stability is increasingly on the global radar. Last week, Forbes magazine named it as the best place in the world to do business. In the lead-up to every presidential election, “countless Americans threaten to move to Canada if their preferred candidate does not emerge victorious. Of course, few follow through with a move north,” it noted. “Maybe it is time to reconsider.”

Windsor, Ont.-based immigration lawyer Drew Porter is also seeing history reverse itself. He is fielding more calls from high-net-worth Americans who are worried their taxes are set to rise. “I’ve been doing this for 20 years now, and always the calls were from people that did well in Canada and wanted to move to the U.S. to increase their standard of living and minimize their income taxes,” he says. “It’s quite noteworthy to me that now I’m getting calls from the U.S. interested in Canada for the same reasons.”

A typical caller is from a rural setting, who is a higher earner and interested in preserving their net worth and concerned about potential tax hikes, he says. Still, he notes, many callers are misinformed about the ease of coming to Canada and are soon deterred by red tape.

Luring skilled American workers to Canada is on the federal government’s radar, as well. Immigration Minister Jason Kenney recently noted Canada could do more to tap into America’s skilled labour market.

“We are looking at ways … that we could do a better job of accessing unemployed American labour,” he told the Calgary Chamber of Commerce last month. “We think particularly in the energy industry, that might be a significant solution to some of the emerging labour market shortages.”

The U.S. has ranked first among homelands for temporary foreign workers in Canada since 2008. Last year, the number of American citizens applying for temporary work permits doubled to 4,024, from 1,974 applications in 2008.

Judith Jones is mulling the move. The New York resident is no stranger to Canada – she lived in Toronto before returning to work in the U.S. in 1995.

She held a variety of jobs in the financial sector until her job at Deutsche Bank’s compliance department evaporated in 2008. Since then, she has struggled to find work in the sector that matches her 23 years of experience, and has watched her salary dwindle.

“Most of us in the financial industry who did banking like I did, we never expected Wall Street to crash,” she says. “I’ve since found out Canada did not have the recession we did to nearly to the same extent, and has better regulations. Unlike the U.S., you didn’t play around with the mortgage industry. That’s why it’s so attractive.”

She’s still healthy at age 47, but said Canada’s health care is another attraction as she sets her sights north.

She’s not alone. Last month, a New York radio segment on Looking for Work in Canada on The Brian Lehrer Show was flooded with calls and featured comparisons of the two countries’ banking systems, employment situation and health-care systems.

New York’s office of the state comptroller forecast this week that the city could lose almost 10,000 additional jobs by the end of next year, which would bring total job losses in the securities sector to 32,000 since the start of 2008.

By contrast, total global employment by Canadian banks hit a record of more than 360,000 last year, while the lobby group the Toronto Financial Service Alliance is holding a career fair in New York this month to attract top American talent.

Philip Turner isn’t packing his bags yet – but he is gearing his business more towards Canada. The book publisher is based in New York, and has long brought Canadian books, by authors such as Margaret Atwood and Mordecai Richler, to the U.S. market. Now, he is making more business trips to Toronto to drum up business.

“I am trying to develop business in Canada with Canadians,” he says. “There is a little more buzz in Canada right now than is the case here.”

_____________________

LOOKING FOR WORK

It’s not just Americans who are looking with envy at Canada’s comparatively stable economy.

Greeks and Irish too are vying to move to Canada amid dim job prospects in their own countries, according to immigration lawyers.

“I don’t speak Greek, but I am getting phone calls right now, and I think it’s going to intensify as the situation is only going to get worse,” says Toronto-based lawyer Sergio Karas.

In Windsor, Ont., lawyer Drew Porter says he has had “an awful lot of calls from Ireland over the past year-and-a-half.”

The number of temporary work applicants from Ireland nearly doubled between 2007 and 2010 and more than doubled from Spain, according to Immigration Canada. It has dwindled from Greece – however the numbers don’t capture activity this year.

Asian immigration driving Canada’s positive dietary trends, report finds

By RANDY SHORE, Vancouver Sun October 18, 2011 4:04 PM



Canada’s growing Asian population is exerting a powerful influence on the nation’s dietary trends, from eating more fruit to consuming less beef, according to a newly released market study.
Canadians are eating 703 million fewer servings of potatoes per year than they were in 2001 and 297 million more servings of rice, according to Eating Patterns in Canada (EPIC), a study by market-research firm NPD Group.
The popularity of beef is waning — down 384 million meals a year over the past decade — while seafood and pork consumption is increasing steadily, by 248 million and 372 million meals a year respectively, according to food and beverage analyst Joel Gregoire.
Asian Canadians are also more likely to reach for fruit as a snack than Canadians as a whole. The Asian population tends to snack more than other cultures, averaging 309 snacks per year per person — the national average is 291 — choosing fruit 38 per cent of the time, compared to just 30 per cent for all Canadians.
The share of immigrants to Canada coming from Asia has risen from 14 per cent in 1981 to 45 per cent forecast for 2011, he said, adding there is little doubt that population has had an impact on the way all Canadians eat.
“Rice, to no one’s surprise, is very popular with Asian consumers, but when we take a step back we can see rice growing overall in Canada and potatoes declining,” Gregoire said. “Potatoes are still eaten more often, but [they’re] on a downward trend.”
The trend lines indicate some convergence in the eating habits of all Canadians, he said.
“We still do see big differences in what Asian Canadians eat as well,” he said. Asian consumers are less likely to eat beef, fuelling an overall decline in the amount of beef eaten by the so-called “average” Canadian.
Pork, seafood and poultry are all popular with Asians, Gregoire said.
“Whether that is bleeding over into the rest of the community is hard to say, but the sheer size of the immigrant community from Asia is impacting [those sales],” he said.
“We recognize that there is incredible diversity within the category of Asian Canadians — people of Chinese, Indian and Filipino descent — but for our purposes here we have combined them to see these larger trends,” Gregoire said.
NPD Group maintains a rolling sample of 3,000 Canadians, who report a full week of their eating and drinking behaviour to provide consumption data for analysis.
“We are able to get a pretty good picture of eating behaviour in Canada,” said Gregoire. “We are in the field 52 weeks a year.”
NPD Group provides market analysis to food and beverage companies, which use detailed data about Canadians eating habits — what they eat and drink, when they do so and where — to ensure they are well-positioned to exploit emerging markets.
“Food manufacturers need to understand what the flavour profiles are that will resonate with [Asian] consumers,” Gregoire said. “Asian consumers are far more likely to eat tropical fruits, for instance.”
rshore@vancouversun.com

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