New report puts world population at 7 billion by 2011

By Ethian Gavish

By 2011, the world’s population should reach 7 billion, according to a new report put forth by the Population Reference Bureau’s 2009 World Population Data Sheet.

The report states that 97% of global growth over the next 40 years will occur in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.

“The great bulk of today's 1.2 billion youth - nearly 90% - are in developing countries,” said Carl Haub, a co-author of the report, to CNN.

Immigration of the rural youth into more developed places will probably continue into 2011.

“During the next few decades, these young people will most likely continue the current trend of moving from rural areas to cities in search of education and training opportunities, gainful employment and adequate health care,” Haub told CNN.

The U.S. and Canada will account for most of the growth in the developed world - half coming from immigration alone - the report states.

The report also says that high fertility rates combined with a young population base is the fuel behind most of the growth in the developing world. In Africa, women give birth to six or seven children on average, compared with about two children in the U.S. and 1.5 in Canada.

By 2050, the report shows that Canadian population will be up from 31 million to 42 million, while Uganda will increase a staggering 34 million to 96 million.

“Even with declining fertility rates in many countries, world population is still growing at a rapid rate,” Bill Butz, president of the bureau, told CNN. “The increase from 6 billion to 7 billion is likely to take 12 years, as did the increase from 5 billion to 6 billion. Both events are unprecedented in world history.”

The report forecasts that India will lead the world in population by 2050, increasing to 1.7 billion. Such a boost in population will overtake ranking leader China, where the population is predicated to reach 1.4 billion.

According to the report, the No. 3 slot in 2050 will go to the U.S., with a projected population of 439 million.

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Canada to move to 5th place in economic performance in 2010: Conference Board

By Krystle Chow, Ottawa Business Journal Staff

Canada's keeping its "B" grade on international economic performance this year and the next, but it's also expected to climb in the rankings, although it's partly because other countries have been harder-hit, according to the Conference Board of Canada.

The Conference Board's "How Canada Performs" forecast for 2010 said the country is expected in 2010 to move to fifth place out of the 17 countries ranked, just missing an "A" grade and jumping six spots from 2008.

Six "C" grades among the eight measures pulled down Canada's ranking in the last Conference Board report, although the country had scored highly on inflation and gross domestic product growth.

However, in 2010 Canada is expected to improve its relative ranking on GDP growth, unemployment, job growth, and both inward- and outward-flowing foreign direct investment performance, due mostly to the country's resilience in the face of harsh economic troubles worldwide.

"Canada is expected to weather the global recession better than most of its peers, which is a credit to its stable financial sector and a relatively healthier economic position upon entering the downturn," said Glen Hodgson, the board's chief economist and senior vice-president, in a statement. Still, he warned: "But achieving a higher rank because other countries are falling farther is not the basis for sustainable prosperity. Some of Canada's fundamentals, such as labour productivity, remain weaker than those of the global leaders."

The United Kingdom is expected to see one of the most severe drops in overall economic performance between 2008 and 2010, as the financial crisis has hurt the U.K. credit markets and housing prices, leading to weaker consumer spending and business investment, the report said.

However, the top and bottom rankings won't change, with Norway staying put as the strongest performer due in part to its large petroleum industry, while Ireland will continue to rank last.

The Emerald Isle fell from first to 17th place in 2008 amid a 2.7-per-cent contraction in economic output and a drastic deterioration in its domestic property market and construction sector. As well, its per-capita income, which was the third-highest in 2008, is forecasted to fall to 7th in 2010.