Canada’s future is in the West: 2011 Census

JOE FRIESEN AND BILL CURRY

Ottawa— Globe and Mail Update

Power and population are shifting to the Prairies and B.C. as Ontario enters a period of relative decline.

The results of the 2011 census released Wednesday confirm what many Canadians already instinctively understand. The country is re-orienting itself away from Central Canada and toward the Pacific. Oil, gas, potash and other resources are drawing migrants and the region’s political and economic influence is growing as a result.

Alberta and Saskatchewan are booming as both immigrants and native-born Canadians flock to the oil fields and resource industries.

Ontario, long the central engine of growth, was the only province in the country to see its rate of growth drop since 2006. It’s also the first time in 25 years that Ontario slipped below the symbolic threshold of the national growth rate.

Overall the Canadian population increased by 5.9 per cent since the last census to 33.5 million, a slight increase from the 5.4 per cent growth between 2001 and 2006.

Canada is the fastest growing country in the Group of 8 industrialized nations, thanks largely to its immigration program, which accounts for about two-thirds of the increase in population.

But the end is near for that kind of fast growth. The report estimates that population growth could, within 20 years, be close to zero – unless there is a sustained level of immigration or a substantial increase in fertility.

Alberta, in many ways the centre of the Canadian economy today, leads the country in population growth at nearly double the national average. Its two big cities, Edmonton and Calgary, were the two-fastest growing cities in the country. A significant portion of its population increase came from interprovincial migration, as it has traditionally. Alberta also saw a significant increase in immigration from abroad.

Saskatchewan’s turnaround has been stunning. From 1996 to 2006 the province lost more than 1 per cent of its population, an indictment that saw young people leaving for opportunities elsewhere. But as the price of commodities rose over the last five years Saskatchewan grew by 6.7 per cent to pass the 1 million mark, as it did once before in 1986. More than a quarter of that growth was due to Canadians re-locating to Saskatchewan from other provinces.

Manitoba doubled its rate of growth since the last census, to 5.9 per cent. Much of that was due to a doubling of immigration under the provincial nominee program.

When combined with strong, immigration driven-growth in British Columbia, the Western provinces for the first time have a greater share of the Canadian population than the sum of Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

The decline of manufacturing in Ontario, which cost the province more than 300,000 jobs over the last decade, was a major contributor to tens of thousands of Ontarians leaving the province for greener pastures, twice as many as between 2001 and 2006. Ontario also welcomed about 100,000 fewer immigrants over the last five years than it did in the first half of the decade. While it’s still growing at a healthy rate, it’s not growing the way it used to.

“What is significant is that all other provinces had higher rates of population growth,” said Laurent Martel, senior demographer at Statistics Canada. “It’s not a huge decrease but it’s the only province showing that kind of trend.”

Quebec saw its share of the Canadian population dip a little further, as it has for several years. It’s now down to 23.6 per cent, from 29 per cent in 1951. All four Atlantic provinces showed higher growth rates than in 2006, but all were still below the national average.

Newfoundland grew for the first time in 25 years, as fewer people moved away.

Wednesday’s data marks the first of four releases from the 2011 mandatory short form census and the information is limited to data on population and dwellings.

Part of the census data released Wednesday looks at population growth from 1851 to 2061 and it underscores many of the demographic trends that are currently at the heart of political debate.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is provoking heated debate across the country with two major policy announcements in recent months. The first is his decision to curb the rate of growth in provincial health transfers over time so that they grow in line with the economy. The second was his decision to open up a debate about raising the eligibility age for Old Age Security, arguing the shrinking ratio of workers to retirees will not be able to support the current age of 65 as an increasing number of baby boomers qualify for the federal program.

The numbers show the aging of Canada’s population will be most pronounced during this decade and the next.

“The aging of the population will accelerate between 2011 and 2031 as baby boomers reach the age of 65,” states the census report. “In 2026, the first of the baby boomers will reach the age of 80, an age when mortality is high. As a result, the number of deaths will increase significantly.”

Statistics Canada projects that the number of births and deaths will be nearly the same in Canada from about 2030 to 2060, meaning any population growth will rely almost entirely on immigration.

On May 29, Statistics Canada will release the second of its four census reports. It will break down the census information based on age and sex. Then data on families, households, marital status, and other dwelling information will come out on Sept. 19, followed by a final report on Oct. 24 dealing with language.

Information in these reports are not affected by last year’s controversy over the long-form census. The Conservative government decided to replace the mandatory long-form census and its more detailed questions with a voluntary household survey. The change prompted the resignation of the head of Statistics Canada amid concern about the reliability of a voluntary survey and the compatibility of the results with previous research.

By the numbers: How Canada’s cities are changing

TAMARA BALUJA

OTTAWA— Globe and Mail Update

THE WEST: LEADING THE COUNTRY IN GROWTH

Saskatchewan’s population saw an increase of more than 65,000 people from 2006, the first time in census history since 1986 that the province's population has topped 1 million.

The four Canadian cities with the highest rates of population growth since 2006 are in Western Canada – Calgary, 12.6 per cent; Edmonton, 12.1 per cent; Saskatoon, 11.4 per cent; and Kelowna, 10.8 per cent.

Fuelled by the resource and energy sectors, these Western cities have lured people from other provinces as well as new immigrants with the promise of jobs. In Saskatoon, population growth increased from 3.5 per cent between 2001 and 2006 to 11. 4 per cent between 2006 and 2011. Kelowna, in contrast, is a retirees haven with a warm and dry climate, and a growing wine industry.

TORONTO: THE STORY OUTSIDE THE CITY

Toronto is pushing its boundaries with population growth concentrated in the northern and western ends of the GTA, as well as the downtown core along Lake Ontario.

While the city’s population growth rate increased by 4.5 per cent, the real change was in Brampton, which jumped by 20.8 per cent fuelled by an influx of immigrants from South Asia and, in particular, growth in the Sikh community.

To the north, municipalities such as Newmarket and King City initially saw high population growth rates, but now suburbs closest to Toronto, such as Richmond Hill and Markham, are leading the pack, perhaps due to commuters feeling the pinch of rising gas prices.

Barrie saw the biggest changes: Initially the growth of Barrie led the way from 1996 to 2001 with a rate of 25.1 per cent, but has been steadily declining since, falling to 5.6 per cent between 2006 and 2011 – slightly below the national average of 5.9 per cent.

In contrast, Milton was the municipality with the fastest rate of growth at 56.5 per cent.

THE EAST: TURNING IT AROUND

Population growth for Newfoundland and Labrador was positive for the first time since the period from 1981 to 1986, with fewer people leaving the coast for job markets in central Canada and the Prairies. That faster growth was also present in Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick, which both saw higher numbers of immigrants.

At the city level, Fredericton’s population growth rate was one of the highest in the Atlantic provinces at 11.3 per cent, followed by Moncton at 7.7. per cent and St. John’s at 5.5 per cent.

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Drawn by jobs, immigration boom hits Saskatchewan

JENNIFER GRAHAM

REGINA— The Canadian Press

From all over the world, they come to Saskatchewan with little in common except their knowledge of a couple of fundamental Canadian truths.

These days – certainly if the first tranche of data from the 2011 census, released Wednesday, is any indication – Saskatchewan is the place to be.

That, and it can get pretty fierce in the winter.

“It was very, very cold the year we arrived,” recalled Shazia Rehman, who moved from England to Canada in 2006 when her husband, a doctor, got a job in Regina.

“We arrived in February and we literally stood at the airport and I thought, ‘My life is over. I’m going to be buried under the snow. No one is ever going to find my body,’” Sinead Tierney moved arrived from Ireland in September 2010. Her husband, a journeyman carpenter, was looking for work after the construction industry went under in Ireland and Saskatchewan held promise – even though she’d never heard of it.

“We had huge expectations as regards to your winters,” Ms. Tierney laughed. “We had been warned.”

Iraqi-born Askandar Agha, 29, moved to Saskatoon in October 2011 because his wife’s family lived in the city. He, too, braced himself for the weather. “Before I moved here, I was watching it on the Internet,” he recalled. “I knew…the weather was going to be very cold.”

The ferocious Canadian winter hasn’t lived up to its billing of late. The red-hot Saskatchewan economy, on the other hand, most certainly has, if the 2011 census is any indication: population growth in the province hit 6.7 per cent over the last five years, compared with a negative growth rate of 1.1 per cent between 2001 and 2006.

Saskatchewan welcomed more than 28,000 immigrants between 2006 and 2011, about three times the number of the previous five years, as well as some 12,000 newcomers from other provinces. Between 2001 and 2006, the province suffered a net loss of 35,000 people.

In 2008, the province was aiming for 2,800 nominations under the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program, 85 per cent more than the 2007 target of 1,500. The target has gone up every year since the program was established in 2001.

Immigration Minister Rob Norris said he anticipates some 4,000 people will apply under the program this year. With family members, that could mean as many as 12,500 people arriving in Saskatchewan.

Jobs are the big draw. Demand for skilled labour in Western Canada’s booming oil and gas sector continues to grow, and Saskatchewan is flush with both, as well as potash and uranium.

Indeed, the Saskatchewan economy remains a juggernaut even in the face of worldwide economic turmoil.

Many of the province’s newcomers are from China, India and Pakistan, Mr. Norris said. There are also a lot from the Philippines, where Saskatchewan has been aggressively recruiting nurses. Nearly 400 nurses from the Philippines have registered in Saskatchewan since 2008.

“Saskatchewan is becoming increasingly diverse, dynamic and cosmopolitan,” Mr. Norris said.

“And that stretches not simply across Regina and Saskatoon, but it’s felt right across the province. Communities like Swift Current and Yorkton, Prince Albert and Lloydminster, to name but a few, that really are increasingly cosmopolitan centres and welcoming to our new neighbours.”

There are still challenges for newcomers. Officials at welcome centres in Regina and Saskatoon say the biggest barriers are language and housing.

For Ms. Rehman, it’s been hard to find the billowy salwar kameez, a staple of traditional Muslim garb. Most of her clothing comes from England, Pakistan or Toronto.

Family and friends still wonder what possessed her to move to Saskatchewan.

“To be really honest, I can’t imagine living anywhere else now because this is home and has everything that I want,” she said. “It has great friends who have become closer to me than maybe blood.”

Mr. Agha, who was a doctor in Iraq, said his biggest challenge will be getting his medical licence. He is studying and hopes to eventually practise in Saskatchewan.

And though he misses his family back home, Mr. Agha calls Saskatoon “beautiful.”

“It’s a very nice country and the people are very friendly,” he said. “Whenever you go out, they are very open. It’s not like my country because in my country if you go [out], you are afraid of attacking, bombarding, stuff like this. Here, no.”

Ms. Tierney’s husband had a job lined up before they moved, and she landed work once they got here. But one of her biggest fears was how her daughter, who was nine at the time, would adjust.

“We had the decision made coming over here that if she didn’t settle, we might not stay, because if your child isn’t happy then your life is going to be miserable as well,” she laughed.

“I’m must say that we’re very, very happy here now. We’re absolutely thrilled that we made the decision to come here.”

Census: Newcomers drive population growth

OTTAWA — Canada is well on its way toward becoming a nation of immigrants — figuratively and literally.

While it's no secret that immigrants have helped build this country and Canada has long celebrated its rich multicultural history, 2011 census figures released Wednesday by Statistics Canada indicate two-thirds of overall population growth is being fuelled by newcomers.

Unlike the United States, where growth is still driven by natural increases in population — the difference between births and deaths — only one-third of Canada's growth is due to fertility.

It's a trend that's been going on for about a decade due to the rapid decrease in fertility that began in the late 1960s and 1970s and the increase in the number of deaths due to an aging population.

"As a result, the numbers of births and deaths have converged since the end of the Baby Boom in Canada, and migratory increase has taken on an increasingly important role in recent Canadian population growth," Statistics Canada's census report concluded.

Population projections suggest the trend will continue as boomers die off and that by 2031, immigration will account for more than 80 per cent of Canada's overall population growth.

"Without a sustained level of immigration or a substantial increase in fertility, Canada's population growth could, within 20 years, be close to zero," the report found.

With an immigration system that's placing a greater emphasis on temporary foreign workers and international students, combined with huge backlogs in applications for permanent residence and stricter citizenship requirements, it also raises questions about whether Canada may not just become a country of immigrants, but whether it may also become a country of non-Canadians.

While it's not clear exactly how many of the 33,476,688 people enumerated in the 2011 census are landed immigrants, refugees or people here on study or work permits, all are included in Canada's total population. All enjoy varying rights and privileges with respect to work, social programs such as health care and mobility, but none is eligible to vote in Canadian elections.

"Our immigration levels of 250,000 per year means that . . . we have a million new people in the country in less than five years," said Western (formerly the University of Western Ontario) sociology professor Rod Beaujot.

"The integration of this new population is a continuous challenge."

Nationally, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has identified immigration reform as a necessary prerequisite to building a stronger Canadian economy for the future. He has signalled the government will put a greater emphasis on accepting immigrants into Canada who have a particular skill that is needed in the workforce.

As new immigrants typically face disproportionately lower job participation, the hope is that newcomers will be able to hit the ground running and contribute more quickly to the country's coffers which are facing mounting pressures related to things such as rising pension and old age security costs.

Beaujot, however, said credentials, language deficiencies and mismatched skills that result in underemployment and unemployment remain serious barriers for newcomers, particularly in those early years.

Asked about the possibility of a Canada comprised of mostly non-Canadians, Rick Dykstra, the parliamentary secretary to Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, said the government is looking at ways to expedite the citizenship process, but is also being careful to ensure those who take the leap are worthy.

"If you're going to be a Canadian citizen, you have to treat it with the type of honour and dignity and respect that it deserves," he said.

"We think you should really have to achieve a high level of understanding of this country in terms of its history, what it's all about, to accept the values that we practise in this country, the democracy that we have and obviously the ability to be able to speak one of the official languages at a capacity that enables them to be able to interact with other Canadians," he said.

Meanwhile, Harpreet Rehlan and his wife, Ravinder Kaur, are emblematic of another trend over the last five years that has seen higher rates of immigrant-fuelled population growth outside Central Canada, particularly in the West.

The Delhi couple left their families and boarded a plane with plans to start a better life in Canada little more than two weeks ago.

Unlike the 84 per cent of East Indians who've made Ontario and British Columbia their home, this young couple chose to settle in Regina.

"I heard Regina is a good place to live," said Rehlan, who learned about the Prairie capital from a friend who is there on a work visa.

While they both have master's degrees, they came to Canada under the federal skilled worker program — Rehlan as an automotive technician and Kaur, as a school librarian.

They've already found an apartment, a decent curry restaurant, and Kaur has enrolled in English classes at a local immigration centre.

Rehlan said they've had several job interviews and he's optimistic about their future.

It appears, for good reason.

Saskatchewan recently reported some of the highest job vacancy rates in all of Canada and, according to the latest census figures, newcomers are flocking there like never before.

Since 2006, Saskatchewan welcomed nearly three times as many immigrants as it did in the previous five years, while the number of immigrants who settled in Manitoba doubled, according to Statistics Canada.

Meanwhile, Ontario — which was hit harder by the economic downturn and has struggled with an ailing manufacturing sector — saw 96,000 fewer immigrants settle in the province during the most recent census period.

"Immigrants are moving, like Canadians are moving, West because Saskatchewan and Alberta have lower unemployment rates . . . and economies that are doing relative well," said Susan McDaniel, a University of Lethbridge, Alta., sociology professor and director of the Prentice Institute for Global Population and Economy.

"People go where the jobs are. That's always been the case."

Growth in the oil and gas sector, the potash industry and high-tech fields are fuelling population spikes in places such as Saskatchewan, she said, adding Ontario, by contrast has seen "a huge hollowing out of the industrial base."

Prince Edward Island, another province that has embraced Citizenship and Immigration's provincial nominee program, which gives provinces and territories greater say over the selection of immigrants and has helped drive growth in smaller provinces, also has experienced a massive influx of newcomers with more than 8,100 settling there since 2006 compared to just 1,100 between 2001 and 2006.

But it's a trend that won't last, said Godfrey Baldacchino, a sociology professor and Canada Research Chair in Island Studies at the University of Prince Edward Island.

Much of the immigrant-fuelled Maritime population spike since 2006 — it occurred to a lesser extent in New Brunswick and in Nova Scotia — was due to abuse of the provincial nominee program, which is now under investigation in those provinces.

In a bid to attract wealthy immigrant investors, the provinces expedited the visa process and before long, allegations of bribery and corruption followed, along with scathing auditors general reports, lawsuits and police investigations.

Noting unemployment rates in P.E.I. are among the highest in the country, Baldacchino said there is already evidence that many of those immigrants who came through the program have since moved on to other parts of the country, in some cases, without ever even stepping foot in P.E.I.

"I think we've hit the maximum," he said. "The numbers will start going down."

University of Toronto demographer and economist David Foot said he can't understand why immigration remains so strong in Canada when unemployment is still so high. Given the large numbers of temporary foreign workers, he worries those who lose their jobs may not be leaving the country and that Canada may be creating an "illegal immigrant pool."

He also suggested Canadians need not fear population decline and that it may actually be good for both the economy and the environment.

tcohen@postmedia.com

Twitter.com/tobicohen

© Copyright (c) Postmedia News

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Baby boomers bidding good night

BY THANE BURNETT ,QMI AGENCY

On behalf of my generation, I'm sorry we're about to let you down Canada.

Demographer Laurent Martel understands. He's seen the numbers. And has glimpsed at our future.

Among the graphs, charts and data released Wednesday by Statistics Canada -- the first in staggered releases of analysis from the 2011 census -- is a look at our nation's population over the next five decades.

Martel, a senior analyst for StatsCan, has mapped out where the current tide is leading us. For many Canadians, don't get too dejected because you knew this was coming, it's to the grave.

But to those coming from other countries, it's the opportunity to become Canada's lifeblood.

I was born at the tail end of the baby boom generation, arriving from the mid-40s to mid-60s. As a worldwide force, we've come up with some great advances -- non-dairy creamer, computer games, soft contact lenses, the ATM, the Hacky Sack and even liposuction.

But Martel notes in the decades to come in Canada, the gap between the numbers of births versus the number of deaths will shrink.

The aging of the population will speed up between 2011 and 2031 as baby boomers reach 65. By 2026, the first of my generation will turn 80 years old. And no, we will not be kindly old people. We intend to be cranky and butt in at the lottery lineup.

For analysts like Martel, the unknowns in the crystal ball include whether as many immigrants will flock to Canada and what the fertility rate will be in this country.

But one factor is certain.

"We know the baby boomers are all born ... and they will die," says Martel.

This means, in another twenty years, immigration into Canada could account for more than 80% of our nation's population growth. Today, it's about 67%.

Without a sustained level of immigration or a substantial increase in fertility, Canada's population growth could, within 20 years, be close to zero.

But our growth in the world, especially among western countries, is so far impressive.

Both Japan and Germany have seen decreases in population, thanks in part to immigration restrictions.

Though the U.S. has us beat when it comes to babies they still produce. American women average slightly more than two while their Canadian sisters have a fertility rate of about 1.7 'lil Canucks.

By 2056, there will be -- give or take a Canadian -- 50.7 million people in our country.

And while we've always prided ourselves on being a nation built by immigration, this will be particularly true in the decades to come.

So, again, we baby boomers are sorry we're all about to take some time off on the heavy lifting, and you'll have to call in outside help.

But the Hacky Sack just wore us out.