Toward a better refugee-determination system

Canada has a long-standing and well-deserved reputation as a place of refuge for people fleeing persecution in their homelands.

At the same time, however, it has also gained repute as an easy mark for the unscrupulous who fraudulently use our generous refugeedetermination system as a way to get into Canada without submitting to standard immigration requirements and procedures.

Last week the federal government introduced what it calls the Protecting Canada's Immigration Act, legislation intended to make it more difficult for what Immigration Minister Jason Kenney calls "bogus" refugee claimants to game the system, and to streamline the existing cumbersome screening process.

The bill aims to dissuade refugee claimants coming from what the government classifies as "safe" countries - notably European Union member states, from which there has lately been an uptick in refugee claimants. Safe countries, by the government's definition, are ones with democratic political systems, solid human-rights records and independent judiciaries.

The processing of refugee claimants from countries designated as safe would be fasttracked - completed within 45 days as opposed to the 1,000 days it currently takes. Failed claimants from these countries would be immediately deported without recourse to appeal.

The legislation also proposes harsher penalties for those who engage in human smuggling, as well as for asylum-seekers who pay smuggling syndicates to get them to Canadian shores. And it allows for the collection of biometric data - fingerprints and digital photos - of people entering Canada on a visitor visa, a work permit or a study visa.

Both of these measures are advisable. Human smuggling is an odious enterprise that should be severely punished. And while the smugglers' clients are perhaps desperate people in many cases, they are nevertheless participants in an illegal activity that should be strongly discouraged.

The collection of biometric information is a sensible security precaution that will be a valuable tool in preventing people from slipping into the country with false identities.

However, refugee advocates have a point in their complaints that the legislation is too harsh in the removal of appeal provisions for persons from designated safe countries seeking refugee status.

The measure was invoked in large part due to a flood of applicants of Roma origin from eastern European countries, notably Hungary. And while Hungary and others, such as Romania, Bulgaria and the Czech and Slovak republics, would qualify as safe under the proposed criteria, all of them have a history of discrimination against and persecution of their Roma populations.

As such, closer examination of their cases than the legislation allows might show some of these to be legitimate claimants.

Also, the new bill would eliminate a provision in previous refugee legislation that called for a committee of experts to decide which countries should be designated as safe. This should be restored. It is preferable to leaving it up to the government - any government - to decide, a process in which humanitarian considerations could be overridden by political considerations.

Shielding the refugee system from false claimants is not only in the best interest of Canadians, on whom they are a financial burden, but also of legitimate applicants who stand to lose out if bogus claimants cast the system as a whole into disrepute.

Establishing a system that is both efficient and fairly balanced is a daunting challenge, but it is one that should be tackled realistically and at the same time in a spirit of generosity that should stand as a Canadian hallmark.

© Copyright (c) The Montreal Gazette

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Toward+better+refugee+determination+system/6182455/story.html#ixzz1n4SsMiCJ

Pregnant Chinese women conning immigration system

BY MARK DUNN ,SENIOR NATIONAL REPORTER

OTTAWA - The government plans to crack down on a scam in which pregnant Chinese women are coming to Canada for the sole purpose of giving birth so the child becomes a citizen, QMI Agency has learned.

The fraud is mostly based in Hong Kong where unscrupulous consultants are coaching wealthy Chinese mainlanders how to keep their pregnancies hidden entering Canada on student or visitor visas.

Avoid any baby or maternity items in luggage, wear dark clothing going through customs to look slimmer, and arrive in Canada no later than in the seventh month of pregnancy are among the tips given.

Once here, the women go into hiding until they are due to give birth and then go to a hospital to deliver the baby. No one knows the extent of the abuse.

All babies born in Canada are considered citizens - meaning they could return later in life as a student, for example, and sponsor their parents under family reunification.

It is illegal under Canadian immigration laws to lie about the purpose of one's visit. A woman would be denied entry if she told an immigration officer the reason for the trip is to have a baby.

Unlike Canada and the United States, Australia, Britain, South Africa, New Zealand and many European countries have rules in place where citizenship is not automatically granted to foreigners who give birth there.

Officials in Immigration Minister Jason Kenney's office said changes are coming to strengthen laws.

"We are aware of crooked consultants who encourage pregnant women to illegally travel to Canada to give birth and gain access to Canada's considerable benefits," said Candice Malcolm, a spokeswoman for Kenney.

"We condemn the practice of circumventing our laws to game the system."

Changes being considered include making pregnancy exams a condition of obtaining visas, and rewriting rules so automatic citizenship does not come with birth on Canadian soil.

Mark.Dunn@sunmedia.ca

Twitter:MarkDunnSun

Canada’s foreign worker boom

Since 2006, Canada’s low-wage temporary workforce population has ballooned by 70 per cent

by John Geddes on Tuesday, February 21, 2012 11:00am

It was the worst imaginable way to jolt Canadians toward noticing that low-wage foreign workers are an increasingly important segment of the country’s labour force. Ten workers, nine from Peru and one from Nicaragua, recruited to fill jobs vaccinating chickens, were killed, and three others badly injured, when their van ran a stop sign and collided with a truck at a rural crossroads in southwestern Ontario. The truck driver, a Canadian, also died in the crash early this month. The accident thrust the reality of who works at the lowest tiers of farming and some other sectors briefly into the news. But even with that burst of attention, the swelling statistics on migrants remain little discussed. When Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won power in 2006, 255,440 foreign temporary workers lived in Canada. By 2010, their ranks had expanded to 432,682.

They are an increasingly diverse group. A changing mix of migrant occupations signals a shift in the way employers rely on foreigners to do jobs Canadians won’t. York University immigration expert Alan Simmons says the rapid growth has come outside traditional farm and domestic work, in industries like meat-packing, warehousing and hotels. Temporary workers now greatly outnumber newcomers accepted for good. From 2006 to 2010, the number of foreigners living in Canada as permanent residents on their way to citizenship increased only 12 per cent, from 251,642 to 280,681, during a five-year span when the foreign temporary-worker population ballooned by nearly 70 per cent.

The two groups enter Canada under starkly contrasting terms. Those admitted as permanent residents are joining family members who are already citizens, or have been selected under a federal points system that values education and a good grasp of English or French, or are refugees. Those allowed in temporarily are accepted only because their employers applied to the federal government to recruit abroad to fill vacancies they couldn’t interest Canadians in at the prevailing wage.

The fast growth of this temporary class fits with broader federal policy. Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney have signalled they want to more closely match permanent immigrants, too, to immediate job openings. That could mean fewer with advanced degrees, more with in-demand practical skills. Some provinces have already taken on a bigger role in carefully picking immigrants to meet employer demands. Temporary workers have always needed a clear job offer before being allowed in. And Kenney firmed up regulations last year to make sure those offers are genuine. As well, he put a four-year limit on how long temporary workers can stay. Last fall, Kenney and Human Resources Minister Diane Finley met with business leaders, along with labour representatives, in Calgary to discuss making the policy even more “responsive to labour market needs,” although no further policy changes have so far been announced.

A minority of these temporary workers are given the chance to become permanent immigrants. Domestic workers—often live-in caregivers from the Philippines—typically come on short-term visas, but are allowed to apply to immigrate after two years here. Some high-skilled foreign workers can also hope to make the leap from temporary to permanent, but most are offered little or no chance to stay.

Among the provinces, only Manitoba has passed comprehensive legislation to protect foreign temporary workers. “We had identified a pattern that I think others across the country also saw,” says Ben Rempel, assistant deputy minister in the province’s Ministry of Labour and Immigration, “of frequent abuse of foreign temporary workers, most often by unregulated recruitment activity, sometimes by employers who didn’t honour the terms of contracts offered.” Manitoba’s 2009 law requires companies bringing in foreign workers to register with the province. Recruiters must also be licensed. Fines for violations of rules on, for instance, pay and working conditions can be high, up to $25,000 for an individual and $50,000 for a corporation.

Rempel says other provinces are now looking closely at Manitoba’s model. International experience is also well worth examining. Other rich countries have long struggled with how to treat large numbers of foreign workers who live in their midst for many years without qualifying for citizenship, including Turks in Germany and Latin Americans in the U.S. In Canada, the issue may only now be emerging on a large scale. Simmons says it poses two urgent policy questions: “Who’s monitoring the safety and well-being of these workers? Who’s looking at what rules should allow people who really invest in the building of this country to convert to permanent residents?” The answers Ottawa and the provinces arrive at could determine if more foreign workers represent a mutually advantageous economic solution, or a dawning social problem

National Bank Again Named One of Canada's Best Diversity Employers

MONTREAL, QUEBEC, Feb 21, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- National Bank CA:NA +0.46% is proud to have made the list of Canada's Best Diversity Employers, as chosen by Mediacorp Canada Inc., which recognizes 50 Canadian employers who have developed exceptional inclusiveness programs for employees from five major groups: women; members of visible minorities; persons with disabilities; aboriginal peoples; and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender/transsexual people (LGBT).

"At National Bank, promoting diversity is part of our day-to-day reality, and has been for many years. In fact, some of our programs that promote inclusiveness were created over 20 years ago. Since then, the Bank has maintained an inclusive work environment by adapting its human resource practices and by developing, year after year, new initiatives that target diversity," stated Lynn Jeanniot, Executive Vice-President of Human Resources and Corporate Affairs at National Bank.

The following are some of the initiatives that have contributed to making National Bank one of Canada's Best Diversity Employers:

Recruitment

Several attraction programs are already in place and enable the Bank to demonstrate its commitment to diversity through its hiring strategies. Its ongoing efforts continue to result in innovative approaches. For example, a mentoring program was implemented last year to facilitate the integration of new immigrants into the job market through a partnership with ALLIES (Assisting Local Leaders with Immigrant Employment Strategies).

Dialogue and exchanges

Open dialogue is central to the Bank's corporate culture, and managers have made it one of their core values. It is one of the conditions needed to ensure that employees will reach their full potential. In 2011, the Bank held a consultation with its employees who are members of the LGBT community to better understand their situation in the workplace. An action plan was then created to implement solutions for some of the problems identified.

Leadership

National Bank also put its expertise in diversity to good use by helping the Comite d'adaptation a la main-d'oeuvre draft a new guide on managing diversity and the opportunities it represents (La gestion de la diversite, une opportunite a saisir !). The Comite is an organization dedicated to fostering access to training and jobs for persons with disabilities. The purpose of the guide is to help companies adopt a policy for hiring persons with disabilities and is being used as a reference by a growing number of leading employers.

National Bank being designated Best Diversity Employer is one of many distinctions received over the past few months. Last October, the Bank was named one of the Best Employers in Canada and, more recently, was listed among the Top Employers in the Greater Toronto Area, one of Montreal's Top Employers as well as one of the Best Employers in Quebec.

About National Bank of Canada

National Bank of Canada is an integrated group that provides comprehensive financial services to consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises and large corporations in its core market, while offering specialized services to its clients elsewhere in the world. National Bank offers a full array of banking services, including retail, corporate and investment banking. It is an active player on international capital markets and, through its subsidiaries, is involved in securities brokerage, insurance and wealth management as well as mutual fund and retirement plan management. As at October 31, 2011, National Bank has over CDN$156 billion in assets in accordance with Canadian GAAP and, together with its subsidiaries, employs more than 19,000 people. The Bank's securities are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange CA:NA +0.46% . For more information, visit the Bank's website at www.nbc.ca . To access National Bank of Canada's financial literacy portal, visit www.clearfacts.ca .

The telephone number provided below is for the exclusive use of journalists and other media representatives.

        
        Contacts:
        Joan Beauchamp
        Senior Advisor, Public Affairs
        National Bank
        514-394-6500
        
        
        

SOURCE: National Bank of Canada

Copyright 2012 Marketwire, Inc., All rights reserved. 

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney’s new refugee law lacks balance

Since the Conservatives took power six years ago, fewer of the immigrants arriving in Canada are coming as refugees. As a share of all newcomers, refugees have gone down – from 13.7 per cent to 9.2 per cent.

Yet Immigration Minister Jason Kenney says Ottawa must to do more crack down on “bogus refugees” who are clogging up the system and costing taxpayers too much money.

He is proposing legislation that would rapidly deport two types of refugee claimants: those who come to Canada as part of a part of an “irregular arrival” (any vehicle or network suspected of smuggling people) and those who come from countries he considers safe (such as Hungary).

The minister tried this before. In March 2010, he brought in a bill almost identical to the one introduced last week. It would have done a relatively good job of filtering out would-be refugees who were not fleeing persecution or seeking asylum from violence, torture or cruel treatment. It would also have served as a deterrent to fraudsters hoping to manipulate Canada’s refugee system. But it contained too few safeguards for applicants rejected after a cursory hearing.

The opposition parties joined forces to seek a more balanced bill and Kenney, to his credit, listened. He agreed to amend his bill and came up with a compromise called the Balanced Refugee Reform Act. It gave rejected claimants the right to appeal to a new tribunal with knowledgeable adjudicators. It also created a committee to advise the government on the list of “safe countries” that Kenney was proposing.

The minister hailed the compromise as a “win-win.” He told Parliament the amendments strengthened his original bill. The law was scheduled to take effect on June 29.

But last week he introduced a third version, the Protecting Canada’s Immigration System Act. Both of the safeguards in the previous bill are gone.

Under the new bill, Kenney alone will designate “safe countries.” Asylum seekers from those countries will have no right to appeal to the refugee tribunal. And refugee claimants who arrive by way of suspected human smugglers will face mandatory detention while their identity and admissibility are investigated. They will have no right to appeal a negative decision.

The legislation contains one new provision. It would permit authorities to collect biometric data (fingerprints and photographs) from those entering Canada on a visitor’s visa, work visa or study visa.

These changes are necessary, Kenney said, because “it has become clear that there are gaps in the Balanced Refugee Reform Act and we need stronger measures that are closer to the original bill.”

As evidence he pointed to a recent spike in refugee claims from Eastern Europe (primarily Roma people from Hungary) that cost Ottawa almost $170 million last year. There was a similar surge of asylum seekers from Mexico in 2009. But there is a way to deal with this: Require travelers from problematic countries to obtain a temporary resident visa before coming to Canada.

On the positive side, Kenney’s latest reform plan would reduce the current backlog of 42,000 refugee claims; cut the processing time for asylum seekers from countries” to 45 days (from 171 days under Balanced Refugee Reform Act); and save money.

On the negative side, it has no appeal mechanism and it gives the minister power without accountability.

Overall, it’s a step backward from the compromise reached 20 months ago.

Kenney doesn’t have to compromise now. With a parliamentary majority, the Conservatives can enact whatever they want. They don’t have to listen to the opposition parties or take into account the concerns of refugee groups, lawyers, academics or human rights activists.

It is regrettable the minister has decided to go it alone. He had a better bill when he worked with his critics.

Saskatchewan Looks To Ireland To Fill Its Labor Shortage

Sinead O'Carroll, thejournal.ie

A CANADIAN PROVINCE is hoping to benefit from the number of talented people out of work in Ireland as it suffers from a dearth of skilled workers.

A delegation of recruiters from Saskatchewan is travelling to Ireland next month to launch a campaign to address the province’s labour shortage.

The 27 employers hope to fill more than 275 jobs while in Dublin on 3-4 March and in Cork on 7 March.

Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall and Minister of Advanced Education, Employment and Immigration Rob Norris will accompany the recruiting companies on their mission to Ireland.

Located right in the middle of Canada, Saskatchewan is the country’s fastest growing province. It currently boasts record high employment and above-average earnings. The province, including its two major cities Saskatoon and Regina, has just 1.2 per cent of its population receiving unemployment benefits.

Over the next five years, between 75,000 and 90,000 skilled workers will be needed to plug the labour shortage. Recruitment will mainly be in areas of advanced technology, construction, mineral exploration, agriculture and petroleum.

Permanent residency for Irish workers is being fast-tracked by the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Programme.

Such programmes are becoming more common across countries such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand who are not meeting labour market demands. They have honed in on English-speaking countries, such as Ireland, who are suffering from a scarcity of jobs and a surplus of workers.

Of the 275 jobs on offer next month, about 100 are for skilled positions in the construction sector.

“There is a good match between the jobs we have and the Irish people looking to emigrate, especially those with construction backgrounds,” says Michael Fougere, the president of the Construction Association.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/saskatchewan-looks-to-ireland-to-fill-its-labor-shortage-2012-2#ixzz1myrV3Ce1

Manitoba depends on immigration, but one expert argues the province's nominee program needs to cool down

By: Greg Di Cresce

Rodrigo Maglalang immigrated to Manitoba from the Philippines one year ago. Jacob Fehr Loewen left Bolivia five years ago to come here. Both brought families. Both found work. Both desire to become Canadian citizens. And both say they aren't interested in leaving Manitoba.

Accordioned in this way, their stories and experiences appear to echo many of the 13,089 immigrants who came to this province between 2005 and 2009 through Manitoba's Provincial Nominee Program. Both men used the program, which has played a pivotal role in doubling our rate of population growth from 2.6 per cent (between 2001-2006) to 5.2 per cent (2006-2011), according to the recently released 2011 federal census.

No other province has so successfully and strategically employed its nominee program, nor is any other province as dependent on it for its population growth. How this pathway to immigration has been implemented and experienced, particularly by newcomers, can shed light on the changing economic and social shape of our province, today and tomorrow.

-- -- --

Rodrigo Maglalang, 35, said he came for the "good life... a secure and happy life... to get a good job, to own a home of our own, to send our kids to university." Stories from relatives already settled in Winnipeg convinced him and his wife, Ana Liza, 36, that their family could attain this life in Manitoba.

His relatives also told Maglalang, an engineer of 12 years who worked at the Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company, that the best and quickest pathway to Canada was via Manitoba's nominee program.

"The program is impressive," said the father of two children, a boy, Rigo, 4, and a girl, Aubrey, 2. "It asks you to lay down all your cards, all your documents, and you either pass or you don't."

Maglalang downloaded and completed the immigration forms himself.

Relatives coached him and sponsored the application. Maglalang had to show that he would be financially prepared once he arrived; he secured the necessary $16,000 in settlement funds from a friend in New York.

On Feb. 1, 2011, two years from the start of this process, he and his family came to Winnipeg.

"A federal application would have taken six years," he said. "And I was also lucky that I didn't need IELTS (International English Language Testing System). It's a tough test. It's been a requirement of the program since at least June of last year."

Although Maglalang is grateful for the expediency of the process, his arrival in Winnipeg was by no means the end of the journey.

"A few weeks after we arrived, I registered with the Manitoba Start Entry Program," he said, referring to a program that provides newcomers with settlement orientation. "But the schedule they gave me was for 4:30 to 8:30 in the evening. The office is downtown. I'm a newcomer and they told me to avoid downtown at night."

So Maglalang searched by himself, finding most of the job openings online.

In March, after approximately 15 job interviews, he landed a temporary position as a sales associate at Home Depot. With his engineering credentials not recognized, and with no car or valid driver's licence, this was the best job he could get. Three months after that, he found an apartment for his family in the North End between McPhillips and Arlington streets.

"This neighbourhood is, like, 80 per cent from the Philippines. Rigo's school is 90 per cent," Maglalang said. "Next door is my cousin. The other door is a Filipina who married a Canadian. It feels like home."

It is these relatives and friends, as well as his church and an association of former workers at the phone company in the Philippines where he used to work, who have helped Maglalang adjust to Winnipeg.

They've provided what might be described as his "settlement services."

-- -- --

Unlike Maglalang, Jacob Fehr Loewen, 55, lived in Winkler as a temporary foreign worker before applying to the nominee program.

"Without that program, Jacob would not be sitting here today," said Tina Fehr Kehler, a distant relative of Loewen and the program co-ordinator of family services in Winkler for the Mennonite Central Committee (MCC) of Manitoba.

"No, I wouldn't be," said Loewen, who sat in Kehler's office, speaking sometimes in English, more often in Low German, which Kehler translated. After five years in southern Manitoba, he still preferred to be interviewed through a translator.

Loewen is from Bolivia, but his grandparents had originally settled in the Winkler area and he has many relatives here. While visiting in 2006 he was offered work at Morris Piglets Ltd. as a temporary foreign worker.

Kehler learned that Loewen wanted to stay in Winkler and have his wife, Anna, 55, and five children stay, too. Kehler explained to his employer that after working for six months, Loewen could apply for permanent residency through the nominee program. The employer, impressed with Loewen's husbandry skills, agreed to sponsor him.

Loewen and his family became nominees on Dec. 17, 2006.

Asked if he has ever considered leaving the province, Loewen replied: "Not yet."

"Maybe, if somebody offered me much money. But I've got relatives here and everything. There would have to be a church there, too."

His four sons have left, however, returning to Bolivia. Two of them went to get married. Loewen expects them to return.

"There's enough work here," he said. "Things are very much easier here also."

-- -- --

Nathaniel M. Lewis, a doctoral candidate in the department of geography at Queen's University, assessed the successes and challenges of the province's nominee program in the Canadian Public Policy Journal. Lewis concluded that the program, which began as a 1996 pilot program to bring garment workers to Winnipeg, has exhibited an almost frantic adaptability and elasticity in the service of boosting immigration numbers year upon year. This narrow focus has placed a strain on a host of settlement services, such as housing availability.

Additionally, the downloading of settlement services from the federal government to the provinces and from the provinces to ethnocultural networks, such as the MCC, has inculcated a more competitive, regionalized and fragmented system. It's brought, according to Lewis, a degree of "ethnocultural inequality in the selection and settlement experiences of applicants."

Kehler has a different spin: "I'd say it's more beneficial to newcomers to be helped by people who know the culture and the community than by a bureaucrat who's been given the job and has no connection. This is why [the province's approach to immigration] works."

Lewis didn't disagree, but he suggested a quota system, at least temporarily, might be in order to "cool down" a system obsessed with economic and population growth.

"Manitoba's policy has been constantly adapted to bring more and more immigrants and there has been more and more growing pains with each of those changes," he said. "What this all comes down to is what's good policy. Should you just throw something down and see what growing pains occur? Growing pains that are ultimately felt most by newcomers who live the policy? Or should there be a less ad hoc approach?"

While policymakers continue to wrestle with such macro issues, the new immigrants plot their own course. Near the end of 2011 Maglalang's job became permanent. His work schedule turned to steady days, Monday to Friday, affording his wife the chance to look for work at "a Tim Hortons or a 7-Eleven."

"I'd like to go back to school," Maglalang says. "But how can we do that and survive? How can I raise my kids? I have to pay the bills.

"Still, we've survived a year so why not another? Let's see what happens."

gdicresce@yahoo.com

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition February 19, 2012 A6

Alberta's golden goose, Ontario's dead duck

JEFFREY SIMPSON | Columnist profile | E-mail

From Saturday's Globe and Mail

A tale of two provinces unfolded this week: Albertans were told how wonderful their province’s future will be, Ontarians how difficult theirs will be.

Alberta, if the Conservatives’ budget can be believed, is rolling in dough. Government spending increased everywhere. Restraint was a word banished from the province’s vocabulary; spending will be up by almost 10 per cent in the next two years.

The Sustainability Fund was raided again: $1-billion over the past two fiscal years to help reduce the deficit. A budget surplus is forecast of almost $1-billion in 2013-2014, and more than $5-billion in 2014-2015. Amidst this cornucopia of spending and revenue, the Heritage Fund got a puny increase, further evidence of the province’s refusal to save for the future.

The munificence is built on only one product: non-renewable resource revenues. This year, about 25 per cent of government revenues will come from this source; in two years, if the budget forecasts are correct, the share will be about 30 per cent. By far the biggest revenue source among the non-renewables: the oil sands (or tar sands, if you wish). Royalties from bitumen in two years will raise almost $10-billion, just a shade below revenue from personal income taxes.

So when Alberta touts its low personal and corporate tax rates, and the lack of a sales tax – the Alberta Advantage – there’s only one reason: bitumen royalties, followed far behind by royalties from crude oil and natural gas, and sales of Crown land for exploration. No wonder it’s the abiding purpose of the Alberta government to do nothing that the oil industry doesn’t want, a position echoed by the Harper government in Ottawa.

Alberta’s good fortune and bright future contrasted with the scenarios for Ontario painted by economist Don Drummond and his fellow commissioners. Whereas Alberta’s budgets balloon courtesy of bitumen royalties, Mr. Drummond warned Ontarians that “we cannot count on robust economic growth to resolve our fiscal challenge.” Alberta thinks its economy might grow at 4 per cent a year; Mr. Drummond forecasts Ontario might grow at half that rate.

Alberta’s government will get bigger in spending and personnel; Mr. Drummond said Ontario’s must shrink. Alberta is heading for big surpluses, Ontario for large deficits – $30-billion in 2017-2018, Mr. Drummond reckons, if nothing is done. Alberta has no provincial debt; Ontario’s debt has reached a ratio of 35 per cent of the provincial economy and is going higher. Alberta has the highest bond rating; Moody’s Investor Service just knocked down Ontario’s from stable to negative.

Alberta’s spending per capita on government will go up; Ontario’s must decline an average 2.5 per cent a year for seven years – “a drop that is almost certainly unprecedented,” Mr. Drummond wrote.

Of course, no Ontario government will be that draconian, certainly not a minority Liberal government that has presided over years of big spending increases. Instead, Ontario will be raising more revenues from higher fees and taxes, thus widening the tax gap with Alberta.

Alberta, courtesy of its booming economy, is attracting a greater share of skilled immigrants; Ontario is getting a higher share of family-class immigrants and refugees, meaning it’ll take much longer to reach average Canadian wages.

Of course, Alberta pays into the country’s equalization scheme, as Ontario did for decades. Now, Ontario receives equalization payments. The way the system works, however, means Ontario gets a small amount from Ottawa, but Ontario taxpayers are actually sending more money to Ottawa than their government gets back in payments.

The drift of people and money to Alberta has been going on since the 1970s, but, for much of that period, Ontario held its own. With Alberta, it was the paymaster of equalization and, together, they were the country’s two golden geese.

All this changed in the past decade. Apart from a couple of drops in the price of oil, Alberta has boomed, whereas the hollowing out of manufacturing has stunted Ontario’s prospects. Alberta will see big government spending with low tax rates; Ontario will face government spending but higher tax rates.