Pay more, get less, or work longer - these are likely scenarios

As our workforce ages, younger income-earners are being asked to carry more of the tax burden and cost of services such as health care

BY DON CAYO, VANCOUVER SUN AUGUST 4, 2011

Seniors tend to cost governments more money than they pay in taxes

Photograph by: WAYNE HIEBERT, Postmedia files

Seniors tend to cost governments more money than they pay in taxes; younger workers are more apt to pay in more than they get back in services.

As the balance of these two groups changes in Canada - a burgeoning cohort of retirees, and a barely budging number of income-earners - something's got to give. What are the options?

The best choice, though it's unlikely to be sufficient to cover all of the new demand for government services, would be to simply get more productivity out of those who still go to work.

On one hand, there should be scope for this because, compared to other countries, we haven't been improving our productivity very well. On the other hand, our track record is discouraging because - you guessed it - compared to other countries, we haven't been improving our productivity very well.

Also, because productivity gains are tied to investment, our efforts won't be helped by the shrinking of Canada's capital pool as a growing number of seniors stop saving and start drawing down capital to fund retirement.

Another strategy would be to add new workers through immigration.

We're already doing that, and it works - to a point.

An analysis by Schroder Investment Management notes that Canada has the highest immigration rates in the developed world.

"This is why Canada's population will continue to grow, albeit slowly, until 2050, while many other developed countries will shrink," it says.

"By the 2020s, all population growth is expected to come from immigration, and many sectors of the economy (transport, primary industry, construction) will be dependent on foreign workers. In light of this, it seems unlikely that immigration could be raised to high enough levels to completely offset the effect of domestic population aging."

There are other options, of course, but all look less palatable.

One is that governments could simply give Canadians fewer benefits and services. For seniors, this would almost certainly mean cuts to pensions and further erosion of health care, the two biggies that strain government coffers.

Schroder notes that this is, in effect, what Canada already does to keep the growth of its health care costs at a lower rate than most other developed countries.

Health care cost control "has been largely achieved by limiting capacity," the analysis says. "The number of doctors per 1,000 residents has barely risen; the number of nurses and hospital beds has fallen, and Canada has lagged other OECD countries in its stock of medical technology.

"Capacity control does not appear to have adversely affected health outcomes, with life expectancy and infant mortality continuing to improve and outperform the U.S. However, continued demand growth has necessitated health care rationing and the user experience has deteriorated: Waiting lists for procedures are long and it is often difficult to find a family doctor."

Hands up if you're an older person who wants to see us go farther down this road.

A second strategy would be to tax working people more steeply to pay the freight for the growing numbers who don't go to work any more. That's essentially what the federal government did a decade ago when it raised the mandatory contribution rate for the Canada Pension Plan to 9.9 per cent from six per cent of eligible earnings. Hands up if you're a younger worker who wants to see your deductions go higher still.

Finally, it would help - but only to a point - if baby boomers were to put off retirement for a few more years. Governments have recently made this possible by banning mandatory retirement at 65, and misbehaving markets have made it necessary for at least some of us to stay on the job for a few years longer than we once planned. But the next logical policy step would be to add a stick to the carrot by delaying eligibility for pensions and seniors' benefits.

This would likely irk both sides of the generation gap - boomers who are eager to retire, and younger workers who itch to be promoted into the jobs the old guys vacate.

dcayo@vancouversun.com Blog:

vancouversun.com/economy

Age, language are key to better outcomes for immigrants

McMaster University, Toronto, Canada. The Univ...

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ARTHUR SWEETMAN

Special to Globe and Mail Update

Many immigration issues transcend economics, but Immigration Minister Jason Kenney’s cross-country consultation is a remarkable opportunity for an overdue national discussion regarding the role of immigration in the Canadian economy.

Economists, government analysts and others have been documenting the ongoing decline in immigrant labour market outcomes for at least two decades. In 1980, the percentage of immigrants and the Canadian-born living below the low-income cut-off (sometimes called a poverty line) was almost identical at about 17 per cent. Since then, the rate for immigrants increased to more than 21 per cent (in 2005), while that for the Canadian-born decreased to 13 per cent.

Most of the difference appears to be driven by declining labour market outcomes for subsequent cohorts of new arrivals. Immigrants who landed in the late 1970s earned at entry roughly 15 per cent less than comparable Canadians. Since then, the earnings gap has increased significantly and is now in the range of 35 per cent to 40 per cent. The gap narrows as time spent in Canada increases, but it’s not clear that the average recent immigrant will catch up in a reasonable working lifetime.

While federal and provincial governments have taken steps to improve labour market outcomes, more is needed. Research shows there are many factors at play, but two stand out: language ability and age at arrival.

It’s well understood that English- or French-language skills are important for labour market (as well as social) integration for all immigrants, but they’re especially important for the skilled workers we seek to attract.

The Canadian “points” system currently sets the same language requirements for all immigrants. But there’s some evidence that language skills are especially important in facilitating the portability of preimmigration human capital for high-skilled immigrants. Unfortunately, some appear not to have the language skills necessary to fully employ their occupational/educational skills in the Canadian labour market. Putting increased emphasis on language ability at selection for the highly skilled seems to make sense if a “fast start” is desired. Simultaneously, providing settlement resources to allow more extensive language training would be a good investment.

Demographic issues also interact with economic ones. There have been suggestions that immigration’s economic class (as opposed to family or refugee class) be employed to address the dependency ratio associated with population aging. But the actual operation of the system does not appear to have paid any attention to this goal. While those in the skilled worker category are awarded points for “age,” these don’t align with demographic needs. (Strangely, neither do they align with the observed age profile associated with positive labour market outcomes. Rather, they are flat and at their maximum from age 21 to 49.)

As a result, the demographic peak for current immigrants coincides with the peak for the baby boom and, therefore, increases rather than alleviates problems associated with baby boomers’ impending retirement. While a sensible immigration system can only influence our nation’s age structure a little one way or the other, the immigration system could start to “fill in the Generation X valley” between the hills of the baby boom and baby boom echo.

Finally, the immigrant selection system needs better/more management tools and transparency. The “inventory” (backlog) of applications is untenable and requires action. While recent changes are going in the right direction, they appear to be insufficient. One million people are currently waiting to be processed, and more are added to the list every day.

Additional measures – such as increased preliminary screening and stronger proactive management of the application process for the economic class, including adjusting the points threshold to manage the queue – would be beneficial. Coming to admission decisions more quickly and improving economic outcomes for new immigrants will be better for prospective immigrants and for Canada. Increased transparency, including regular detailed reporting of processing times, might also assist in improving system operations.

Arthur Sweetman is a professor in the Department of Economics at McMaster University. He recently presented research findings at the Institute for Research on Public Policy’s conference on Canada’s long-term immigration policy.

RBC tips immigrants to Canada starting a new business

EDITED BY JOHN STOKES

If you are thinking of starting a business in Canada, it pays to know what resources are available. There are several special programs and services offered by the government, and financial institutions to help newcomers become successful business owners in Canada.

"Newcomers should look for start-up incentives, advisory services and step-by-step roadmaps," said Camon Mak, head multicultural markets.

Mak offers tips for getting started:

 Find a small business advisor at a bank who understands your needs as a newcomer. They can provide you with the appropriate advice to help your business succeed.

 Ask your advisor where to look for information on understanding local market opportunities.

 Talk to your advisor about getting connected to important community resources, such as an accountant, lawyer and government services.

Further tips are available online at www.rbcroyalbank.com/tips.

You can also visit www.servicecanada.gc.ca/eng/lifeevents/business, to find more information on how to start your own business in Canada.

Source: http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/news/business/2011/08/03/389.html

More immigrants are in Canada's national interest

GEOFFREY CAMERON AND IAN GOLDIN

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Aug. 04, 2011 2:00AM EDT

Last updated Thursday, Aug. 04, 2011 4:31AM EDT

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney’s announcement that he’s launching stakeholder consultations on Canada’s immigration program presents a timely opportunity for a national conversation. How will we adapt to a century of unprecedented mobility? Will we harness migration to build a more dynamic society and economy, or will we quietly recede from the frontiers of globalization, sacrificing innovation and prosperity for a more static society?

With new policies aimed at clamping down on human smugglers and enhancing U.S.-Canada border security, many perceive that Canada’s door is closing. This is false – so far. Canada accepted 17 per cent more migrants last year than in 2005. In a time of recession when other Western governments are imposing strict limits on migration, Canada admitted 50,000 more migrants in 2010 than in 2009.

Over the past 25 years, the total number of international migrants doubled to more than 200 million. We should expect that number to double again in the next two decades. The world is entering a period of hypermobility, the product of a growing supply of potential migrants from developing countries and a burgeoning demand for both low- and high-skilled workers in developed countries such as Canada. Skype, Western Union, low-cost airlines and other advances are enabling an unprecedented scale of movement.

The drivers of mobility will grow stronger in the coming decades for three reasons:

• Intercountry inequality is increasing rapidly. Millions of Europeans left for the Americas in the late 19th century to seek, among other things, wages that were two to four times higher than those at home. Today, migrants stand to earn as much as 15 times more by moving to another country to work.

• The connected processes of economic development, urbanization and population growth in developing countries are positioning more people to seek their fortunes abroad. Those with the greatest propensity to move are educated young people with access to resources and networks for migration. Climate change will also threaten rural livelihoods, pushing more people into cities and some across borders.

• Demand for migrants will increase as declining fertility and population aging create severe labour shortages, often in developed countries such as Canada. The fiscal burden of an aging population will be borne by a shrinking work force, and staff for nursing homes and retirement facilities will continue to be scarce. Just as Canadian farms rely on temporary foreign workers during harvest time, our elderly population will benefit from the care provided by new Canadians.

We should embrace higher levels of migration because it’s in our national interest. High-skilled migrants innovate at a higher rate than the native-born population, and low-skilled migrants meet crucial service sector gaps. On the whole, migrants contribute more to the public purse than they receive in benefits. It’s no wonder the provinces are seeking increased quotas.

We should also increase levels of migration because it can deliver far more for global prosperity than foreign aid and international trade ever will. Completely opening borders, World Bank economists predict, would produce gains as high as $39-trillion for the world economy over 25 years. These numbers compare with the $70-billion that is currently spent every year in overseas development assistance and the estimated gains of $100-billion from fully liberalizing international trade. If we want to revolutionize our foreign aid policy, we can start by giving more people a chance to work in Canada.

The debate on immigration policy is undermined in many countries by partisan agendas and dysfunctional politics. Other governments are tempted to choke off migration in the interest of short-term expediency and political gain. We must resist this trend, remembering that Canada is a society built with the ingenuity and hard work of generations of migrants.

Geoffrey Cameron, a research associate with the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford, works in Ottawa. Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School and a professorial fellow at Balliol College, Oxford. With Meera Balarajan, they are the authors of Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped Our World and Will Define Our Future.

NEWCOMERS: WHY CHOOSE PETERBOROUGH, ONTARIO?

Posted by Guest Writer on Wednesday, August 3, 2011 ·

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“The community greeted us with open arms. Neighbours and co-workers helped us get settled and find suitable daycare for our young children, which made the transition and move much easier. Peterborough has given us the sense of community that we couldn’t find in a larger city. It’s a great place to raise our children” Binu Jain—Peterborough Resident originally from India.

In Peterborough, you will experience all the advantages of city living, while enjoying the benefits of the natural world. Home to approximately 80,000 residents, Peterborough offers exceptional quality of life, an affordable cost of living, and access to first-rate educational institutions. An ideal place to start your own business, offering many resources and programs to help you along the way, Peterborough is also the focal point of many immigration success stories. Beginning in the 1800’s, successive waves of people moved to the area to build Peterborough into the city rich in history and culture that we know today.

“We are a people who believe that our origins matter less than our destinations. And that where you come from is not as important as where you are going.” Meet Daryl Bennett—Mayor of Peterborough

WelcomePeterborough.ca contains information for those who are either thinking of immigrating to Canada, or who have recently arrived. It will help you decide if you want to live in Peterborough and how to get settled here.

Information about the history of immigration to Peterborough, local weather, and geography can be found in the “About Peterborough” section.

For help with immigrating to Peterborough, including what to do before arriving and resources to assist you with settling after you arrive; check out the “Immigrating” section.

In the “Living” section, you will find everything you need to know about housing, food, finance health, transportation, and much more.

The “Working” section provides important and useful information about finding a job, starting a business, and getting your credentials recognized.

To learn about Peterborough’s college, university, school boards, and opportunities for lifelong learning, check out the “Learning” section.

Stories from Newcomers at WelcomePeterborough.ca

After a short stay Windsor, Hua Chen and his wife moved to Peterborough in 2005, where they both attended Trent University. Originally from Beijing, China, Hua struggled initially with his English but soon made Peterborough his home. Today, Hua describes Peterborough as a welcoming and beautiful city. For those looking to further their education, Hua recommends Peterborough’s Trent University, saying that “Trent is small but good because the professors are very nice. They know the students and their needs, and are willing to talk to, and help anyone”.

Rene, an accountant, and Maria Ferrer, a copywriter, immigrated to Peterborough in 1989 from the Philippines to pursue better educational opportunities for their son. Starting over was tough, but with hard work, both Rene and Maria landed their dream jobs. Twenty-two years later, their oldest son now travels the world as an engineer and their youngest is now studying at Queen’s University. They are all proud to call Peterborough home!

Shah Mohammad Yousuf moved to Toronto from Bangladesh in 2005. After working what he refers to as a “survival job” for a period of time, Shah found employment in Peterborough as a Spatial Data Analyst. When asked what he likes about Peterborough, Shah had to say that “[the] people are great, helpful, and co-operative. It is a quiet and family-oriented community where I can find quality healthcare and recreation. There are also many different agencies that help newcomers and immigrants to settle here”. Like all newcomers, Shah misses his family but doesn’t have any regrets about moving to Peterborough. “I like my life here, and I love Peterborough”.

Since 1971, Jim’s Pizzeria has been a Peterborough favourite. Owners John and Hellen Kostsovos emigrated from Greece to Montreal in 1959, along with their brothers and sisters. After a few years adjusting to Canadian culture, the doors of the first Jim’s Pizzeria opened in Belleville in 1969; followed by the second in Trenton in 1970. After opening the third Jim’s Pizzeria in Peterborough, John and Helen decided to stay and raise their family. When asked about Peterborough, their daughter Effie says that “Peterborough was small enough to feel safe, but large enough to sustain a profitable business”.

Karma Phuntshok and his wife initially emigrated from New York to Toronto in 1999. His wife was pregnant with their son at the time, and Karma decided that Toronto was too large of a city to raise a child in. At the suggestion of friends, Karma and his wife moved to Peterborough, where he found work at a local meat packer. Karma had always wanted to open a restaurant and in 2004 he opened Karma’s Café, a South Asian and Himalayan restaurant on Hunter Street. If you ask Karma about Peterborough today, he’ll say that he “loves it here”. Excitedly he claims that “Peterborough has the best services, restaurants, art, and music for the size”.

In 2000, Binu Jain and her family emigrated from India to Canada. Initially, the Jain family lived in Waterloo before moving to Peterborough in 2005. Her husband Pankaj accepted work at Siemens and Binu began to look for employment in Peterborough and surrounding area. With a Master’s degree in Applied Mathematics and a Project Management Professional designation, Binu was offer a job at Siemens shortly after. When asked about Peterborough, Binu says “the community greeted us with open arms. Neighbours and co-workers helped us get settled and find suitable daycare for our young children, which made the transition and move much easier.

Peterborough has given us the sense of community that we couldn’t find in a larger city. It’s a great place to raise our children. They are more in touch with their Indian heritage and culture in Peterborough than they would have been growing up in India. Peterborough has become our home, and is heaven on earth. It’s difficult to imagine living anywhere else”. Binu advises that “there is a positive trade off to moving to a small community, you have more time to bond with your family and contribute to the community. The community is so open and helpful – the possibilities are endless.”

Full length success stories can be found at WelcomePeterborough.ca

Source: http://www.muchmormagazine.com/2011/08/newcomers-why-choose-peterborough-ontario/

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Steve Lafleur: Only more immigrants can save Canada’s economy

National Post, National Post
Monday, Aug. 1, 2011

In his immigration policy remarks on July 19, Minister Jason Kenney acknowledged that Canada would need roughly one million immigrants per year in order to maintain the ratio of working age citizens to retirees. Citing a lack of resources for integrating new Canadians, and a concern that accelerating immigration levels too rapidly could lead to a nativist backlash, he said that it won’t happen.

While the Minister’s expressed concerns are valid, they pale in comparison to the demographic reality. The proportion of Canadians aged 60 and over is projected to increase from roughly one-fifth to nearly one-third by 2020. Our national debt stands at over $582-billion, and is increasing at a rate of more than $1,400 per second. This burden doesn’t include provincial government debts, or unfunded pension liabilities such as the $748-billion shortfall for the CPP. For those Canadians hoping to start collecting CPP in the next decade, the question shouldn’t be if we can integrate one-million immigrants per year, but how.

While taking in four times more immigrants than we do now would present some logistical challenges, they are not insurmountable. One criticism against more immigrants is that more immigrants will put greater stress on the housing market. This assumes that the housing stock is fixed, and that all immigrants will go to the hottest real estate markets. Canada’s three biggest cities have admittedly been hostile to new development, which is pricing many out of the market. A healthier attitude toward development will be crucial if those cities are to remain affordable.

However, the immigration question presents a great opportunity not just for smaller metropolitan areas, but for rural areas as well. Rural areas in Canada are often resource rich, but population poor. It is most evident in Saskatchewan, where there are typically 10,000 vacancies in any skilled trade in the province. There are plenty of resources, but not many people. Saskatchewan is twice the size of Germany, with 1/80th the population. There is no shortage of room or resources.

Smaller centres also offer the advantage of lower cost housing, and would require less expensive infrastructure upgrades. Manitoba is leading the country in terms of targeted immigration to smaller centres. Rural Manitoba received nearly 3,200 immigrants in 2008 alone, and the province is clamouring for more. For too long, our immigration policy has been fixated on Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. High levels of rural immigration can revitalize communities, and Manitoba has shown the way.

The immediate costs of immigration have to be acknowledged. Language training, security screening and so forth cost money. Some argue that the costs outweigh the benefits. It is reasonable to require newcomers to our country to shoulder the full cost of their resettlement here, and Canada should consider changing its immigration system to ensure that absorbing a new immigrant does not impose a financial cost on the country as a whole.

Further, rather than relying on the federal immigration system, the federal government should give in to provincial demands for an increase in the number of immigrants admitted through provincial immigrant nominee programs. The programs attract immigrants who come to Canada to fill labour market vacancies, as well as immigrant entrepreneurs.

The federal government has announced that it will increase the quota from 36,000 to 40,000. But this increase is nowhere near enough. The nominee program helps places in lesser demand attract workers and revitalize small urban and rural communities. It also ensures that participants have employment before they arrive in the country. Smaller communities are typically better at welcoming and integrating newcomers, too. If the federal government is concerned about the costs of immigration, and they should be, they could even reduce regular immigration rates and aggressively expand provincial nominee programs.

Regardless of how they go about it, the federal government needs to ensure that we have enough workers to fuel the country’s economic growth where it needs fuelling, and to fund the Baby Boom generation’s retirement obligations. Having made these commitments to retirees, the government must find a way to meet them.

More retirees and fewer workers will make funding unfunded pension liabilities and repaying our national and provincial debts a staggering burden on young workers. Short of forcing people out of retirement, or returning to steady pre-Second World War fertility levels, more immigration is our only option for addressing our demographic decline. The only other option will be steep cuts to social entitlement programs, an option no politician is likely to propose.

National Post

Steve Lafleur is policy analyst with the [external] Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

Steve Lafleur: Only more immigrants can save Canada’s economy

National Post, National Post
Monday, Aug. 1, 2011

National Post

Steve Lafleur is policy analyst with the [external] Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

Students flock to Canada instead of Australia

International students are flocking to Canada at the expense of Australia due to uncertainty over visa rules and not because of the high Australian dollar, according to a major education company.

One of the biggest providers of English courses to overseas students, Navitas, says parents in China and Vietnam are confused by changes to Australia's visa rules and are now choosing to send their children to other english-speaking countries.

Navitas says student enrolments in Australia have fallen 14 per cent for the 2011 June/July semester, in line with "similar industry trends".

It comes as the federal government conducts a review of the student visa program.

Among other things, the review is looking at reducing visa assessment levels for Chinese and Indian applicants.

Navitas chief executive Rod Jones said parents, particularly in the lucrative Asian markets, were unsure about visa requirements and were now sending their children to Canada and to lesser extent, the United States.

"They don't understand what it all means," Mr Jones said.

"Canada has been an enormous beneficiary out of this. The numbers there have just gone out of control."

However, he predicts the Canadian government will tighten its visa policies for international students as Australia and the United Kingdom have done.

"They just can't absorb the demand," Mr Jones said.

Navitas reported a 20 per cent increase in full year profit on Tuesday despite a softening of demand for student enrolments.

The education provider has more than 8,500 international students on its Australian books and a total of 14,600 students worldwide.

It says instability caused by the federal election, changing government policy and the strong Australian dollar hit the English division in full year 2011.

But Mr Jones said the strong Australian dollar wasn't the "major impact".

Canada, which also had a relatively strong currency, was doing particularly well with international student numbers while the United Kingdom had experienced a downturn despite the weakness in the pound.

"The biggest things at play here are government policy," he said.

Anecdotal evidence from the Navitas' Asian operations shows China and Vietnam markets were the most worrying, Mr Jones says.

Immigration Minister Chris Bowen has said the review of the student visa program will look at ways to better manage immigration risk in the student visa caseload and deter breaches and misuse of the program.

It would also consider the suitability of separate visas for different education sectors.

To date, the review has received two hundred submissions and is expected to release its findings in September.

Nexus Canada can assist you in the process of getting your study permit/visa to Canada.

Immigration Canada

Pay more, get less, or work longer - these are likely scenarios

As our workforce ages, younger income-earners are being asked to carry more of the tax burden and cost of services such as health care

Seniors tend to cost governments more money than they pay in taxes

Photograph by: WAYNE HIEBERT, Postmedia files