Canada's population growth slows

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Canada's population rose slightly from the start of the year to April 1, with Alberta registering the fastest increase and Ontario reporting its slowest first-quarter growth in 15 years, according to Statistics Canada.

But while the national total hit 34,349,200, the growth in population was lower, at 70,800, than the increase of about 85,200 for the first quarter of 2010, the federal agency reported Wednesday.

The slowdown was mainly due to a decline in net migration — the difference between the number of arrivals and departures — in the first quarter of 2011, at 49,500 compared to 58,100 in the same period in 2010.

Jonathan Chagnon, a demographer with Statistics Canada and one of the authors of Wednesday's report, told CBC News that the country's population growth has been slowing the past few quarters, but warns that an accurate picture can only be reflected over the full year.

One factor that may be reflecting the first-quarter 2011 slowdown compared to the previous year's period is that from January to the end of March, 2010, Canada took in its highest number of immigrants in years. The 49,500 in this latest reporting period may just be a matter of the country moving to a more regular level, he added in an interview from Ottawa.

Alberta's population reached 3,758,200, an increase of about 15,500 compared to the year-earlier quarter, and the highest-quarter increase since 2006. But the province also had its lowest net migration, at 3,600, for a first quarter since 2004.

The only province in Atlantic Canada with a population increase was Prince Edward Island, by nearly 400 to 143,800. P.E.I. also welcomed the most immigrants (500), relative to its population, compared to the rest of Canada. Newfoundland and Labrador's population fell by 700 to 508,400 as of April 1, partly the result of 500 people moving to other provinces.

On April 1, Nova Scotia's population was estimated at 942,300, a drop of nearly 1,100 over Jan. 1, with about 1,000 people reportedly moving to other provinces.

New Brunswick’s population, estimated at 753,000, changed little in this year’s first quarter compared to the year-ago period.

Ontario's immigration levels dip

In Central Canada, Ontario had 28,400 new residents as of April 1, the lowest number since 1996, mainly because the province received only 20,100 immigrants, its lowest first-quarter level since 1998.

Part of the reason for Ontario's lower immigration levels may be that other provinces "are trying to attract more immigrants," Chagnon said.

Quebec’s population rose by 14,600 to 7,957,600, with only 900 people leaving to settle in other provinces, the lowest number since 2005.

Other first-quarter findings in other regions compared to the same year-ago period:

• Manitoba: Population increased by just over 2,700 to 1,246,400. Reported it’s highest inflow of immigrants since 1972, at 2,800 people.
• Saskatchewan: Population rose by about 1,900, to about 1,054,000.
• British Columbia: Population rose by 9,200, to about 4,563,300, the slowest increase for a first quarter since 2005.
• The three territories: Their population remained relatively unchanged. Yukon’s was estimated at 34,400, Northwest Territories at 43,500, Nunavut at 33,400.

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Severe worker shortages’ forecast for Alberta

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI

CALGARY — A perfect demographic storm is developing in Alberta leading to severe worker shortages for many years to come.
Thomas Lukaszuk, Alberta’s Minister of Employment and Immigration, said the province is already starting to see labour shortages in some sectors such as the transportation and hospitality industries.
“There are companies that simply can’t find workers already,” he said. “There are sectors that are already showing inability to readily find employees at competitive price. And that will only escalate as time goes on.
“Overall, we will have severe worker shortages not only in this province but in Western Canada for many, many years to come.”
Lukaszuk said the province is heading into a perfect demographic storm.
“Very rarely do stars align like that,” he said.
Many economists have forecast Alberta’s economy to be a nation-leader in the next couple of years. Many of the Baby Boomer generation are retiring which will create a “massive exodus” of workers. That will create a void in not only numbers but experience in the workforce. The natural population growth is not replacing that exodus. And the retirees will force increased demand for various services from coffee to medical care.
On Friday, Statistics Canada reported that the province’s unemployment rate dipped to 5.4 per cent for the month, down from 5.9 per cent in April. This rate was the third lowest in the country behind Saskatchewan’s 5.0 per cent and Manitoba’s 5.3 per cent. It was also down from 6.7 per cent in May 2010.
Employment increased by 8,500 and over the previous 12 months, employment grew by 2.8 per cent, or 56,300 jobs, the fastest growth rate in the country.
In the Calgary census metropolitan area, the unemployment rate fell to 5.7 per cent in May from 5.9 per cent in April. Statistics Canada said 1,500 jobs were created in the Calgary CMA from the previous month and year-over-year employment grew by 19,200 or 2.7 per cent in the region.
Calgary’s unemployment rate was 7.6 per cent a year ago.
Danica Lelliott, 33, was hired in May to work as a server at the Wurst Restaurant and Beer Hall. As she was job hunting, Lelliott noticed the growing choices that were available to her.
“There are quite a few jobs available — especially in the service industry. People are always hiring if you’re the right kind of person — if you have the experience and have the personality,” she said.
“There’s definitely a demand for people. People are more than willing to hire.”
Michael Fotheringham, research manager at Calgary Economic Development, said the local labour numbers are a positive trend with a gain in full-time employment and a decline in part-time employment.
“I think it means that we’re possibly inching closer to possible labour shortages (and with) increased demand and shifting demographics we may not be too far off the pre-recession unemployment rate,” said Fotheringham.
He said CED is sensing a more positive mood in the business community with further capital spending and job growth in the future. He expects the unemployment rate over the summer months to hold steady but see a further reduction in the fall.

The provincial government has developed a short-term employment forecast tool to identify potential imbalances in the labour market in the near future. Sixteen occupations were listed as having a significant likelihood of shortages in the next three years.
They include retail trade managers; restaurant and food service managers; mechanical engineers; petroleum engineers; computer programmers and interactive media developers; web designers and developers; general practitioners and family physicians; registered nurses; retail trade supervisors; food service supervisors; technical sales specialists, wholesale trade; hairstylists and barbers; estheticians, electrologists and related occupations; construction millwrights and individual mechanics (except textile); heavy-duty equipment mechanics; and motor vehicle body repairers.
In Alberta, full-time employment increased by 18,200 while part-time employment decreased by 9,600 from April to May 2011.
The following industries had the most employment increases in May from the previous month in the province: Construction, 8,600; Health Care and Social Assistance, 6,300; and Information, Culture and Recreation, 5,300.
Knightsbridge Human Capital Solutions has established an executive search Calgary-based practice in Alberta to help clients respond to the emerging talent crisis which some reports say will result in a labour shortfall of 77,000 workers over the next 10 years.
“From a human capital perspective, this is a critical time for Alberta,” said Mark Hopkins, managing partner. “We believe that companies must effectively manage the leadership gap being created as an aging workforce retires in ever-increasing numbers. At the same time, we are seeing rapidly increasing activity levels, increased technical and commercial demands, and a significant shortage of specialist technical skills.”
Across the country, the federal agency said employment rose by 22,000 in May, bringing gains over the previous 12 months to 273,000 (1.6 per cent). The employment increase in May, combined with a decline in the number of people looking for work, pushed the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.4 per cent, it said.

mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Severe+worker+shortages+forecast+Alberta/4924913/story.html#ixzz1P1g7hp7P

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