Canada's population growth slows

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Canada's population rose slightly from the start of the year to April 1, with Alberta registering the fastest increase and Ontario reporting its slowest first-quarter growth in 15 years, according to Statistics Canada.

But while the national total hit 34,349,200, the growth in population was lower, at 70,800, than the increase of about 85,200 for the first quarter of 2010, the federal agency reported Wednesday.

The slowdown was mainly due to a decline in net migration — the difference between the number of arrivals and departures — in the first quarter of 2011, at 49,500 compared to 58,100 in the same period in 2010.

Jonathan Chagnon, a demographer with Statistics Canada and one of the authors of Wednesday's report, told CBC News that the country's population growth has been slowing the past few quarters, but warns that an accurate picture can only be reflected over the full year.

One factor that may be reflecting the first-quarter 2011 slowdown compared to the previous year's period is that from January to the end of March, 2010, Canada took in its highest number of immigrants in years. The 49,500 in this latest reporting period may just be a matter of the country moving to a more regular level, he added in an interview from Ottawa.

Alberta's population reached 3,758,200, an increase of about 15,500 compared to the year-earlier quarter, and the highest-quarter increase since 2006. But the province also had its lowest net migration, at 3,600, for a first quarter since 2004.

The only province in Atlantic Canada with a population increase was Prince Edward Island, by nearly 400 to 143,800. P.E.I. also welcomed the most immigrants (500), relative to its population, compared to the rest of Canada. Newfoundland and Labrador's population fell by 700 to 508,400 as of April 1, partly the result of 500 people moving to other provinces.

On April 1, Nova Scotia's population was estimated at 942,300, a drop of nearly 1,100 over Jan. 1, with about 1,000 people reportedly moving to other provinces.

New Brunswick’s population, estimated at 753,000, changed little in this year’s first quarter compared to the year-ago period.

Ontario's immigration levels dip

In Central Canada, Ontario had 28,400 new residents as of April 1, the lowest number since 1996, mainly because the province received only 20,100 immigrants, its lowest first-quarter level since 1998.

Part of the reason for Ontario's lower immigration levels may be that other provinces "are trying to attract more immigrants," Chagnon said.

Quebec’s population rose by 14,600 to 7,957,600, with only 900 people leaving to settle in other provinces, the lowest number since 2005.

Other first-quarter findings in other regions compared to the same year-ago period:

• Manitoba: Population increased by just over 2,700 to 1,246,400. Reported it’s highest inflow of immigrants since 1972, at 2,800 people.
• Saskatchewan: Population rose by about 1,900, to about 1,054,000.
• British Columbia: Population rose by 9,200, to about 4,563,300, the slowest increase for a first quarter since 2005.
• The three territories: Their population remained relatively unchanged. Yukon’s was estimated at 34,400, Northwest Territories at 43,500, Nunavut at 33,400.

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Immigration helps Canada’s population grow as job prospects improve

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THIS POST WAS WRITTEN BY CHARLES KELLY ON JANUARY 29, 2011
POSTED UNDER: NEWS

Canada’s population increased by an estimated 129,300 (1.5% quarter over quarter at annual rates) in the third quarter of 2010, thanks to a net inflow of international immigrants (+84,200).

After a dip in the second quarter of 2009, and with the recovery of the economy, Canada’s rate of population growth has steadily accelerated since the third quarter of 2009.

Canada’s population now stands at 34,238,000, just over half the UK population and around a tenth of similar sized neighbour the United States, which recorded 308 million people in 2010.

In fact Canada’s entire population is only slightly larger than the number of people living in the metropolitan areas of New York and Los Angeles.

Prince Edward Island recorded the fastest population growth in the third quarter (+2.8% q/q at annual rates). In the quarter, PEI’s population increased by 975 to 143,200.

British Columbia was the second fastest rate of population growth in the third quarter (+1.9%). Despite a slowdown in net interprovincial in-migration from 2,000 in Q2 to 600, the province’s population increased by 20,900 to 4,551,800 as a result of a net inflow of 10,300 international migrants and 5,600 non permanent residents.

A steady strengthening in employment in Central Canada relative to the rest of the country that started in mid-2009 and has persisted through 2010 is reducing the net outflow of migrants from both Ontario and Quebec to other provinces.

Ontario’s population increased in the third quarter by 1.8% to 13,268,600 due to a combination of sustained net international in-migration (+38,464) and net gain of 2,100 migrants from other provinces.

Quebec saw its population grow by 1.3% q/q annualized to 7,932,000 as a result of a 14,600 inflow of international migrants and no change in net interprovincial migration.

In Western Canada, Saskatchewan’s population growth of 1.6% outpaced Alberta and Manitoba both of which saw gains of 1.5% in the third quarter.

While the gain in population in all three provinces was supported by strong net inflows of international migrants, in Alberta almost two thirds of the increase was due to natural increase (i.e., births minus deaths).

Looking ahead at the prospects ahead, recent signs of stronger employment growth in Western Canadasuggest population growth in the West will accelerate vis-à-vis the rest of the country through 2011.

Source and figures: John Clinkard Daily Commercial News

John Clinkard has over 30 years’ experience as an economist in international, national and regional research and analysis with leading financial institutions and media outlets in Canada.

Canada is the largest country in the Western Hemisphere and second only to Russia is size. China, Brazil and the US have a similar land mass, but all have much larger populations.

Unlike many countries in the west, Canada has plenty of room to grow and needs lots of skilled workers to migrate to Canada.

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Immigration drives construction and the B.C. economy

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by Philip Hochstein, President, Independent Contractors and Businesses Association of B.C

In Alberta, the price of oil is the economic sign of the times. In Saskatchewan, it’s a mix of key agricultural and mining commodity prices. In Ontario, manufacturing and financial services dominate.

These indicators provide a snapshot of their economies and signposts of the health of what is driving provincial economies.

A recent report by the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association (ICBA) of B.C. shows something different drives B.C. – immigration.

Though forestry, mining, and tourism remain important, it’s the in-flow of individuals and families from the rest of Canada and from other countries that’s at the heart of our economy.

With construction adding more than $9 billion a year to GDP, and driving nearly 10 per cent of the jobs in the province, the health of the industry matters to everyone.

View from the Board

Philip Hochstein

Residential construction is more important in British Columbia than any other province.

More than nine per cent of our GDP comes from the sector. Quebec’s residential construction sector has the second largest impact in Canada – and its share of GDP is 25 per cent less than in B.C.

What drives residential construction? Population growth.

What drives population growth? Here in B.C., it’s international immigration.

B.C., like the rest of the Western world, has declining birth rates. British Columbians are doing little to bump up our population.

In-migration from other provinces has been strong for the past few years – a recovery from the 1997 to 2004 period, when more people moved away than moved here. International immigration now drives B.C.’s population increases.

There is a direct link between population growth and residential construction. There was solid growth and high housing starts up until the mid-1990s.

Population growth slowed from 1997 to 2000 – mirrored by a decline in housing starts.

When the population started increasing again in 2001, housing starts began rising to levels surpassing the mid-1990s.

It’s not just numbers that are important.

It’s the attitude the immigrants bring – a strong attachment to home ownership. In an assessment released last year, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation looked at immigrants six, 24 and 48 months after arrival.

While less than one-in-five owned their home at the end of six months, (an already impressive proportion, CMHC noted) more than half did by the 48-month mark.

B.C. booms when more people decide to call this province home. Far from taking away jobs, immigrants, and Canadians heeding the call to head west, generate them. In particular, new British Columbians drive the construction sector – in homebuilding, in multi-family construction and in expanding the commercial and institutional infrastructure that a growing population requires.

Think of it this way – in Alberta, they’re building homes for oil workers, in Ontario for folks working in manufacturing plants.

In B.C. we’re building new homes for the people who are building homes for the people moving to B.C.

In addition to all immigration does to make this a more vibrant and interesting place to live, it’s also key to the economic well-being of all British Columbians.

Philip Hochstein is the president of the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association (ICBA) of B.C. Philip is also a member of the Journal of Commerce Editorial Advisory Board. Send comments or questions to editor@journalofcommerce.com.

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New arrivals push up immigration levels in Canada to their highest since 1971

Image via WikipediaMost of parts of Canada have recorded their highest immigration levels since figures began in their present form in 1971.
Data from Statistics Canada for the third quarter of 2010 put Canada’s population at 34,238,000, an increase of 129,300, some 0.4%, since July. During the third quarter, 84,200 immigrants arrived in Canada, 8,800 more than in the same quarter of 2009.
Despite the increase in immigration though, Canada’s third quarter population growth was only slightly higher than what was observed for the same quarter in 2009. The increase in immigration was partly offset by a decline in the net inflow of non-permanent residents.
The population of Newfoundland and Labrador was estimated at 509,200 on October 1, 2010. Despite a net gain ininternational migration, it was the only province to post a population decline in the third quarter.
Prince Edward Island had the nation’s highest third quarter growth rate. Its population increased by nearly 1,000, 0.7%, to 143,200. The increase was largely due to immigration, as the province received 1,200 immigrants, the highest number since 1971.
Nova Scotia’s population grew by 1,400, 0.1%, to 943,900. The increase was in part attributable to a net inflow of non-permanent residents, up 1,400.
New Brunswick’s population totalled 752,800 as of October 1, up by 1,100, 0.1%. The increase was primarily attributable to immigration, as the province received around 700 immigrants, the highest level observed since the second quarter of 1976.
Quebec’s population grew by 24,800, 0.3%, to 7,932,100 during the third quarter. The province received 16,800 immigrants, the highest level since 1971.
During the third quarter, Quebec’s net interprovincial migration was close to zero, meaning that its number of migrants coming from other parts of the country equalled the number of people leaving the province for another location in Canada. With only a few exceptions, Quebec usually experiences losses in its migration exchanges with the other provinces and territories.
Ontario’s population totalled 13,268,600 on October 1, 2010, an increase of 57,900, 0.4%. Net international migration, the most important factor in the province’s population growth, accounted for nearly 70% of Ontario’s third quarter population increase.
Manitoba’s population as of October 1, 2010 was estimated at 1,240,000, up by 4,600, 0.4%, and the growth was primarily attributable to net international migration, estimated at 4,100. Manitoba received nearly 4,700 immigrants in the third quarter, the highest level since 1971.
Saskatchewan’s population increased by 4,100, up by 0.4%, to reach 1,049,700 as of October 1. More than 60% of this growth was due to net international migration. Saskatchewan’s net interprovincial migration during the third quarter, which was slightly above zero, was much lower than in the same period in 2009.
Alberta’s population rose by 14,100. 0.4%, to 3,735,100 in the third quarter. Unlike the situation in other provinces where migration is the key factor of population growth, nearly 60% of Alberta’s growth was due to natural increase, a much higher proportion than in any other province.
British Columbia posted an increase of 20,900, 0.5%, in the third quarter as its population reached 4,551,900. The province received more than 13,200 immigrants in the third quarter, its highest level of immigration since the first quarter of 1997.
via http://www.expatforum.com/canada/new-arrivals-push-up
-immigration-levels-in-canada-to-their-highest-since-1971.html

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Canada forecast to have more immigration and possibly 47 million people in 2036

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Canada is projecting faster population growth because of more immigration than they have projected in the past. Previously Canada was projecting 39.4 million people in 2035 but now they are projecting a medium assumption forecast of 43.5 million in 2035. There will be many updated national population counts and new population forecasts starting from the end of 2010 and through 2011 and 2012 as the census results from 2010 are tabulated for different countries.

Canada's fastest growing province in British Columbia (BC) which could top 7 million people in 2036.

Canada would be in the range of 33 to 38th most populous country. I am expecting that over the next couple of decades that the current estimate will be revised upwards again. Canada is doing very well with oil in Alberta and Saskatchwan and natural gas in BC.

If Canada's population growth trends go towards the high-growth scenario then the 2050 population could be 60-75 million. This would put Canada around 25th in World population and possibly exceeding the expected population of France or the UK.

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